<div style="text-align: justify;">Because of long product development cycles, effective production planning of automobiles requires accurate demand forecasting in order to effectively managing resources and maximizing revenue. Errors in demand forecasts have often led to enormous costs and loss of revenue due to suboptimal utilization of resources. Since early 2000 India has been the largest manufacturer and consumer of farm tractors in the world. This paper develops multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (MSARIMA) and autoregressive moving average model with exogenous variable (ARMAX) to forecast monthly demand for farm tractor. The result indicates that ARMAX with real agriculture credit has found to be outperformed MSARIMA model in forecasting demand of farm tractors in the horizon of six months. The accurate monthly forecasting of farm tractor would help the manufacturers for better raw material, inventory and supply chain management.</div>

<div style="text-align: justify;">Forecasting monthly farm tractor demand for India using MSARIMA and ARMAX models</div>

Background: The per capita net availability of pulses in India has been increased from 15.5 kg per year in 2018-19 to 19.6 kg in 2021-22. Efforts made to bridge the gap between demand and supply of pulses in the country has resulted in reducing the gap to some extent in recent years and still country is depended on import to meet the growing demand of the pulses such as pigeon pea, lentils and peas. Few studies predicted the demand and supply of pulses as a whole in the country and no studies analyzed the pulse wise demand supply gap in India. Hence, the present study was proposed to predict the demand and supply of major pulses such as chickpea (Gram/Chana), pigeon pea (Tur/Arhar), black gram (urd bean), mung bean (Green gram) and lentil (Masur) in India for a period, 2024-2030. 
 
Methods: The present study has been used the crop data on area, production and yield of major pulses including chickpea (Gram/Chana), pigeon pea (Tur/Arhar), black gram (urd bean), mung bean (Green gram) and lentil (Masur) for a period of 29 years (1985-2024) collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India, New Delhi. Household consumption expenditure data was collected from the National Sample Survey office for 2011-12 from the Government of India. The supply projection was estimated by using linear regression model and demand projections were done by using behaviouristic approach. 
 
Result: Decadal trend in area, production and yield of pulses from 1970-2010 showed mixed trends of increase and decrease, whereas in 2010-2020, chickpea, pigeon pea, mung bean and black gram showed positive trend in area, production and yield but lentil alone showed negative trend in production. Import dependency of the pulses in the total availability has reduced to 8.92 per cent in 2021-22 from 19.42 per cent in 2009-10. Import dependency of the pulses in the total availability has reduced to 8.92 per cent in 2021-22 from 19.42 per cent in 2009-10. The availability of pulses has grown at a rate of 3.73 per cent from 2009 to 2021. Chick Pea, Tur, Mung bean, Urd bean and Lentils together contributed on an average 88.7 per cent to the total pulses production and 83.73 per cent of pulses availability from 2013 to 2021. Production of these five pulses has increased to 23.04 million tonnes in 2020-21 from 17.3 million tonnes from 2013-14. Gram is the single pulse contributed more than 40 per cent of the pulse production of the country in the above period. Demand supply projection showed a net surplus of 0.81-3.89 mt in the case of pulses and 5.64 -7.63 mt in the case of gram and 0.89 to 1.91 mt in Urd and 0.68 to 1.57 mt in Mung bean during 2024-2030. But in the case of pigeon pea and lentil there may be a net deficit in the range of 3-2.42 and 1.13-1.04 mt, respectively, during 2024-2030. Efforts should be made to bridge the gap in demand and supply of pigeon pea and lentil by the way of bringing new areas under pulses and developing the technologies suitable for the clusters.

Demand and Supply Projections for Pulses in India

In the current situation one of the most important issues in environmental economics, management and optimal operation of its resources. Water demand management have been concerned by economic planners as a new approach in environmental economics. This study aims to investigate the management of water demand in different product markets in downstream lands of Yengejeh Dam in Neyshabur. This is an exploratory study in nature which was conducted through a questionnaire survey in 2015-2016. The population of this research is all farmers who use the water of Yengejeh dam to irrigate their lands. Using Cochran formula , 139 barley &nbsp;farmers selected as the sample of this research randomly. A scenario of increasing the elasticity of product demand in resource allocation in the competitive and monopolar water market was developed by assimilation algorithm in the studied region. According to the market situation of water in the region which is almost similar to monopoly water market, the results suggest that if farmers culture crops such as cotton, sunflower, cucumber, tomatoes, peas, red beans and cumin &nbsp;instead of barley that their prices were higher than the price of barley, &nbsp;amount of product produced per hectare of lands near water dam, create and supply costs per cubic meter of water, &nbsp;agricultural investment per meter of water flow to the farm, &nbsp;remaining amount of water per meter water channel, &nbsp;amount of water delivered to each hectare of land, &nbsp;opportunity rent per hectare of land reduced.

Water demand management under alternative institutionnal arrangements (A case study of Coastal Lands of Yengejeh Dam)

This research aims to study the management of water demand in different product markets in downstream lands of Yengejeh Dam in Neyshabur. This is an exploration research survey and library study conducted in 2015-2016. The required information to test the research hypotheses was gathered by questionnaire. The statistical population includes 150 wheat farmers randomly selected &nbsp;A scenario of increasing the elasticity of product demand in resource allocation in the competitive and monopolar water market was developed by assimilation algorithm in the studied region. According to the market situation of water in the region which is almost similar to monopoly water market, the results suggest that wheat farming can be superseded by farming some other trade and export-oriented crops. This brings about an increasing amount of product and yield per hectare of land with using less water supply and less area under cultivation.

Water demand management in different structures of agriculture product market (A case study of Coastal Lands of Yengejeh Dam)

<div>Background: India has been bestowed with wide range of climate and physio-geographical conditions making it suitable for growing various kinds of horticultural crops. Out of which the awareness on usage of cut flowers for various occasions has raised the demand for cut flowers in the market, especially Tamil Nadu. The overall objective of the study is to estimate the demand and supply of cut flowers in Tamil Nadu. 
 
Methods: Hosur block in Krishnagiri district of Tamil Nadu was purposively selected as it is the leader in area and production of rose flowers. A two-stage random sampling method was adopted to select the sample farms with a total sample size of 120. Simple percentage analysis and Data Envelopment Analysis were used to discuss the results.&nbsp; 
 
Result: The important period of demand for cut flowers in Hosur block are events like Navratri, Christmas, New Year, Valentine Day, Therthiruvizha, Ramjan and Bakrith. There were 164 days in a year which would be auspicious. On an average 450 bunches of rose, 320 bunches of gerberas and 150 bunches of carnations are used in an event in addition to some other flowers. The technical efficiency measures for Roses indicated that most farmers belonged to the least efficient category (&lt;90 per cent) with a proportion of 62.50 per cent to total.</div>

Demand and Supply of Cut Flowers Production in Krishnagiri District of Tamil Nadu - An Approach by Data Envelopment Analysis

Background: Millets offer solutions for multiple challenges, including malnutrition, food insecurity, resource scarcity, agricultural production risks due to climate change and lifestyle-related health problems. Hence, increasing millet production and consumption contributes to achieving the United Nations&rsquo; Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2, 3, 12 and 13. The Government of India is actively promoting these crops to benefit both people and the planet. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among urban populations about the nutritional benefits of millet. However, their supply has dwindled over the years due to a decrease in the land area dedicated to millet cultivation, which high-value commercial crops have replaced. If this trend continues, it could lead to a potential shortage of millets within the country. 
 
Methods: In this study, the anticipation demand and supply of millets in the Maharashtra state of India was projected by analyzing consumer expenditure data from the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) for the year 2011-12. Demand estimation was conducted through three distinct methodologies; static projections, normative benchmarks and behavioristic- Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QuAIDS) model allowing for comprehensive insights into consumption patterns and elasticity responses.&nbsp; 
 
Result: The projected demand for millets by 2036 is estimated at 3.90 million tons, while the supply is&nbsp; anticipated to be 0.76 million tons, resulting in a deficit of -3.14 million tonnes. If the current trends in cultivated&nbsp; area and crop yield persist,&nbsp; a&nbsp; substantial net deficit will be observed across&nbsp; all millet varieties included in the study. To mitigate this shortfall, strategic enhancing yield potential&nbsp; through initiatives as distributing&nbsp; high-quality seeds, incorporating biofortified varieties, promoting&nbsp; awareness, implementing&nbsp; price incentives and providing&nbsp; facilities for processing.

Meeting the Growing Demand for Nutri-Cereals: A Supply Assessment for Maharashtra, India&nbsp;

Background: Formal seed is the most critical input to enhance the productivity of fodder and green manure crops. Better accessibility of formal seeds of fodder and green manure can ensure twin effects- productivity and sustainability. The present study throws the light in respect of the supply-demand gap of formal seeds, causes and seed replacement rates of fodder and green manure crops.&nbsp; 
 
Methods: The study was based on a survey conducted on a well-structured schedule during 2022 and 2023. Three stages of random sampling were adopted to select the Blocks, Villages and farmers. One bock with 06 villages and 60 farmers (10 farmers from each village) was selected randomly from each district for the study. So that study was comprised of a total of 05 blocks, 30 Villages and 300 farmers. 
 
Result: The study found that there was a gap in the supply-demand of formal seeds of fodder and green manure crops. The study further reported an inverse relationship between farm size and use of the formal seeds for fodder and green manure crops. The seed replacement rate (SRR) was less for all categories of farms. Farm size is negatively associated with seed replacement rate. Low SRR signifying the need to strengthen the seed supply systems. It was further observed the seeds from the informal sector were given less preference by formers, in terms of quality, over to formal seeds provided by public and private sectors. Despite this, the reason for the gap was that the formal seeds belonging to the public sector were not available in proper time and quantity. The availability of seeds of desired varieties through the public sector was also an issue of concern. Whereas, access to formal seeds belonging to the private sector was limited due to higher prices in comparison to the farmers&rsquo; saved seeds and formal seeds of the public sector causing a supply-demand gap for the fodder and green manure crops.

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Supply-demand Gap of Formal Seeds for Fodder and Green Manure Crops in the Eastern Plain Zone of U.P.

<div>In India, mixed farming and cattle raising is an essential elements of rural life and these practices are connected with the social structure in cultural, religious and economic ways. India&rsquo;s production of fodder is very unevenly distributed and how this resource is used depends on the breed of cattle raised, the climate, the socioeconomic context and the crop-growing patterns. Fodder from cultivated regions is regularly fed to cattle and buffalo, with some harvested grasses and top feeds added as supplements. On the other hand within the land area of just 2.3 per cent, India is home to 16.8 per cent of the world&rsquo;s population and nearly 20 per cent of the world&rsquo;s cattle. India homes cattle (16%), buffalo (55%), goats (20%) and sheep (5%) of worlds total livestock population respectively. This fact makes it more cumbersome to meet the forage demand by livestock, thus shift in paradigm and opportunity in near future is about to hike for fodder crops with their potentiality in production per unit area. The present Indian scenario of fodder crops in comparison with the livestock population is being described in this article along with the net deficit and surplus availability of green and dry fodder. Further, this review also includes the opening of a new way for oats to contribute to fodder production.&nbsp; The challenges facing India for fodder production and its near opportunity to open up and evolve with various methodologies to tackle the present fodder demand by enhancing the production is described in detail in an article.</div>

Forage Production in India: Bottlenecks and Opportunities by Opening up New Way with an Increase in Fodder Oats Demand: A Review

Institutional banking system in India is strengthened through nationalization of banks and many innovative initiatives such as Self Help Group (SHG) - Bank Linkage Programme, Kisan Credit Card (KCC) Scheme and Financial Inclusion. However, many studies conducted in Tamil Nadu, have pointed out several issues such as inadequacy of crop loan amount owing to lower scale of finance and minimum focus on long term agricultural advances that are hampering the banking services directed towards agricultural development. &nbsp;In order to address these issues, an attempt was made in the present study to assess the causes for and consequences of credit gap in the disbursement of short term / crop loan to the sample farm households; Results of the &nbsp;study indicated that &nbsp;the credit gap I (Credit requirement - Scale of finance) and Credit Gap-II (Credit Requirement - Credit Sanctioned) per ha of paddy were lesser in ST borrower farms, which indicted that &nbsp;though the scale of finance for paddy has been fixed at higher level, i.e., well above the credit requirement, the actual credit disbursement was far lesser than the credit requirement. The working capital, in general, enhances the productivity of the crop and the external financial assistance could help farmers in purchasing the necessary farm inputs in adequate quantities and thereby the farm productivity could be improved. But the scale finance itself was far lesser than the working capital required for cultivating paddy in all categories of farms and this resulted in the wider credit gaps in the different farm categories.

Evaluating the gap in demand and supply of institutional lending for paddy cultivation in Thiruvarur district of Tamil Nadu, India

<div style="text-align: justify;">Economics of pulse production is still in its infancy, even though literature on the subject has grown in tandem with the volume of business and attention received by the export-import culture, consumed and traded amount. With a distinct shift in the trend of chickpea production within India and obtained high yield productivity, new constraints have cropped up in the productivity sector of chickpea. In spite of these constraints, innovations in chickpea production have come up; for example, low input livelihood pulse based agriculture systems, sustainable and ecological agriculture, etc. in many parts of the world. These have a definite bearing on the long-run payoffs from small-scale agriculture. Moreover, Chickpea production in tropical countries has been found to be economically viable as a farm diversification strategy and as an independent commercial activity, turning our attention on bio-economic modelling. Cross-price effects of chickpea based agriculture products, effects of trade and non-trade barriers on these products, potential conflicts between the development of chickpea production for export and agriculture for subsistence consumption are the other serious concerns that need to be addressed. With the ever-increasing demand for varietal items based on chickpea in the international market, more research on demand-elasticities and its analysis would be appropriate, especially in the Indian context for the evaluation of the current status and prediction of future scenario of chickpea production. Evaluation of the prevalent chickpea based agriculture technologies can be strengthened by specific farm technical-efficiency studies, which is another area that demands attention in the chickpea economics research. To address such leads and lags, global pulse economists in the country need to take up these challenges by having real time field exposure to different segments of chickpea production.</div>