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Current IssueEditorial BoardOnline First ArticlesArchive

volume 49 issue 2 (april 2015) : 160-164,   Doi: 10.5958/0976-058X.2015.00023.2

Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab

R
Rajneesh Kumar*
A
Anil Bhardwaj
1Department of Soil and Water Engineering, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141 001, India.
Cite article:- Kumar* Rajneesh, Bhardwaj Anil (2025). Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab. Indian Journal of Agricultural Research. 49(2): 160-164. doi: 10.5958/0976-058X.2015.00023.2.

ABSTRACT

The daily rainfall data of 38 years were collected and one day maximum rainfall was sorted to estimate the probable one day maximum rainfall for different return periods by using probability distribution function. The mean value of annual one day maximum rainfall was found to be 105.9 mm with standard deviation and coefficient of variation in percent and skewness of 64, 0.604 and 2.2 respectively. Three probability distributions such as Log Normal, Gumbel and Log Pearson Type-III distribution had been used to determine the best fit probability distribution that describes the annual one day maximum rainfall by comparing with the Chi-square value. The results revealed that the Log Pearson Type-III distribution was the best fit probability distribution to describe annual one day maximum rainfall. Based on the best fit probability distribution, the maximum of 373.42 mm rainfall could be received with 25 years return period. It could be seen that as the confidence probability increased, the confidence interval also found increased. Further, an increase in return period, T caused the confidence band to spread on. The results from the study could be used to design soil and water conservation structures, irrigation and drainage systems and their managements.

REFERENCES

  1. Agarwal, M.C.,Katiyar, V.S and Ram Babu. (1998) Probability analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall of U.P. Himalaya.Indian J. Soil. Cons., 16(1): 35-43.
  2. Benson, M.A(1968) Uniform Flood Frequency Estimating Methods for Federal Agencies. Water Resour. Res., American.Geophys. Union, Vol. 4, October.
  3. Bhakar, S.R.,Bansal, A.N.,Chhajed, N and Purohit, R.C(2006) Frequency analysis of consecutive days maximum rainfall at Banswara, Rajasthan, India. ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 1(3): 64-67.
  4. Bhattacharya, A.K. and Sarkar, T.K(1982) Analysis of rainfall data for Agricultural land drainage design. Jr of Agril.Engg.,33 (3), 269-284.
  5. Chow, V.T. (1964) Hand Book of Applied Hydrology: Chapter 8, Section 1, McGraw Hill Book Co. Inc., New York.
  6. Gumbel, C.J. (1954). Statistical Theory of Extreme Values and Some Practical Applications – A series of lectures.National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C.
  7. Haan, C.T. (1977). Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Affiliated East-West Press Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi
  8. Jeevrathnam, K.,K,Jay. (1979) Probability analysis of maximum daily rainfall for Ootacamud.Indian J. of Soil Cons., 7(1): 10-16.
  9. Kwaku,X.S. and Duke, O. (2007) Characterization and frequency analysis of one day annual maximum and two to five consecutive days maximum rainfall of Accra, Ghana. Jr of Engg. And Applied Science, 2(5):147-153.
  10. Prakash, C. and Rao, D.H. (1986). Frequency analysis of rain data for crop planning, Kota.Indian J. Soil Cons., 14:23-26.
  11. Rizvi, R.H., Singh, R.,Yadav, R.S.,Tewari, R.K.,Dadhwal, K.S and Solanki, K.R. (2001).Probability analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall for Bundelkhand of Uttar Pradesh.Jr of soil Cons., 29(3): 259-262.
  12. Sharda, V.N. and Bhushan, L.S. (1985). Probability analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall for Agra.Indian J. of Soil Cons., 13(1): 16-20.
  13. Singh, R.K. (2001). Probability analysis for prediction of annual maximum rainfall of Eastern Himalaya (Sikkim mid hills).Indian J. Soil Cons., 29: 263-265.
  14. Tilahun, K. (2006). The characterization of rainfall in the arid and semiarid regions of Ethiopia.Water S.A.32(3): 429-436.
  15. Upadhaya, A. and Singh, S.R. (1998). Estimation of consecutive days maximum rainfall by various methods and their comparison. Indian Jr of Soil Cons., 26(2): 193-201.
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    volume 49 issue 2 (april 2015) : 160-164,   Doi: 10.5958/0976-058X.2015.00023.2

    Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab

    R
    Rajneesh Kumar*
    A
    Anil Bhardwaj
    1Department of Soil and Water Engineering, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141 001, India.
    Cite article:- Kumar* Rajneesh, Bhardwaj Anil (2025). Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab. Indian Journal of Agricultural Research. 49(2): 160-164. doi: 10.5958/0976-058X.2015.00023.2.

    ABSTRACT

    The daily rainfall data of 38 years were collected and one day maximum rainfall was sorted to estimate the probable one day maximum rainfall for different return periods by using probability distribution function. The mean value of annual one day maximum rainfall was found to be 105.9 mm with standard deviation and coefficient of variation in percent and skewness of 64, 0.604 and 2.2 respectively. Three probability distributions such as Log Normal, Gumbel and Log Pearson Type-III distribution had been used to determine the best fit probability distribution that describes the annual one day maximum rainfall by comparing with the Chi-square value. The results revealed that the Log Pearson Type-III distribution was the best fit probability distribution to describe annual one day maximum rainfall. Based on the best fit probability distribution, the maximum of 373.42 mm rainfall could be received with 25 years return period. It could be seen that as the confidence probability increased, the confidence interval also found increased. Further, an increase in return period, T caused the confidence band to spread on. The results from the study could be used to design soil and water conservation structures, irrigation and drainage systems and their managements.

    REFERENCES

    1. Agarwal, M.C.,Katiyar, V.S and Ram Babu. (1998) Probability analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall of U.P. Himalaya.Indian J. Soil. Cons., 16(1): 35-43.
    2. Benson, M.A(1968) Uniform Flood Frequency Estimating Methods for Federal Agencies. Water Resour. Res., American.Geophys. Union, Vol. 4, October.
    3. Bhakar, S.R.,Bansal, A.N.,Chhajed, N and Purohit, R.C(2006) Frequency analysis of consecutive days maximum rainfall at Banswara, Rajasthan, India. ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 1(3): 64-67.
    4. Bhattacharya, A.K. and Sarkar, T.K(1982) Analysis of rainfall data for Agricultural land drainage design. Jr of Agril.Engg.,33 (3), 269-284.
    5. Chow, V.T. (1964) Hand Book of Applied Hydrology: Chapter 8, Section 1, McGraw Hill Book Co. Inc., New York.
    6. Gumbel, C.J. (1954). Statistical Theory of Extreme Values and Some Practical Applications – A series of lectures.National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C.
    7. Haan, C.T. (1977). Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Affiliated East-West Press Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi
    8. Jeevrathnam, K.,K,Jay. (1979) Probability analysis of maximum daily rainfall for Ootacamud.Indian J. of Soil Cons., 7(1): 10-16.
    9. Kwaku,X.S. and Duke, O. (2007) Characterization and frequency analysis of one day annual maximum and two to five consecutive days maximum rainfall of Accra, Ghana. Jr of Engg. And Applied Science, 2(5):147-153.
    10. Prakash, C. and Rao, D.H. (1986). Frequency analysis of rain data for crop planning, Kota.Indian J. Soil Cons., 14:23-26.
    11. Rizvi, R.H., Singh, R.,Yadav, R.S.,Tewari, R.K.,Dadhwal, K.S and Solanki, K.R. (2001).Probability analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall for Bundelkhand of Uttar Pradesh.Jr of soil Cons., 29(3): 259-262.
    12. Sharda, V.N. and Bhushan, L.S. (1985). Probability analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall for Agra.Indian J. of Soil Cons., 13(1): 16-20.
    13. Singh, R.K. (2001). Probability analysis for prediction of annual maximum rainfall of Eastern Himalaya (Sikkim mid hills).Indian J. Soil Cons., 29: 263-265.
    14. Tilahun, K. (2006). The characterization of rainfall in the arid and semiarid regions of Ethiopia.Water S.A.32(3): 429-436.
    15. Upadhaya, A. and Singh, S.R. (1998). Estimation of consecutive days maximum rainfall by various methods and their comparison. Indian Jr of Soil Cons., 26(2): 193-201.
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