Study area
The present study was undertaken in the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh in India. Uttar Pradesh plays a vital role in India’s food and nutritional security by contributing 17.83% of the country’s total food grain output in 2016-17 (GoI, 2017; Singh, (2020b). Geographically, Uttar Pradesh is divided into four economic regions,
viz., Western, Central, Eastern and Bundelkhand. This study was undertaken in two districts of Bundelkhand region,
viz. Jalaun and Jhansi due to the preponderance of droughts in the region (Fig 1). Historically, Bundelkhand has been more vulnerable to climate change than other regions of Uttar Pradesh. It experienced drought every 16
th year during the 18
th and 19
th centuries. The incidence of droughts increased threefold in 1968 to 1992 and is now a recurrent annual phenomenon (
GoI, 2017). Average annual rainfall was below average during 2004-2017. Farmers mainly grow wheat, soybean, tur, rapeseed, paddy, gram, maize, groundnut, jowar and bajra.
Sampling framework
A Multi-Stage sampling technique was used to select study sites and households. In the first step, two districts, namely Jhansi and Jalaun, were chosen from 13 districts in the Bundelkhand region. Next each of the five sub-divisions (
i.e.,
Tehsils) in each district were selected. In the third step, one Development Block was selected purposively from each Tehsil. In the fourth step, one village from each selected block was chosen randomly. Finally, 20 households from each village were selected randomly. The result was the selection of 2 Districts, 10
Tehsils, 10
Developmental Blocks, 10
Villages and 200
farm households. Household farm holdings comprised marginal (<1.0 hectare, ha), small (1-2 ha), semi-medium (2-4 ha), medium (4-10 ha) and large (>10 ha) farms. The farmers selected comprised 20% of households from each of these farm size categories in the selected villages. A well-structured and pre-tested schedule was used to collect information about the selected farmers’ perception of climate change and variability during the past five years and the choice of adaptation strategy. The survey was undertaken during May-June 2017 soon after harvesting of the winter crop to elicit information on climate-related variables and agricultural extension services. The survey data related to the agricultural year 2016-17 (July-June).
Estimation method
The indicator-based approach is used in a specific set or combination of indicators (proxy indicators) and measures the vulnerability by computing indices, average or weighted averages for those selected variables or indicators. The suitability of this approach is that it can be applied any scale, such as household, district and at country level (
Singh and Alka, 2019). The present study has adopted the IPCC-vulnerability approach. Therefore, selected rationale indicators are grouped into three groups’
viz., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the farmers. The indicators were normalised so as to use a single scale based on their functional relationship with vulnerability: Eq. (1) was used for a positive relationship with vulnerability and Eq. (2) was used for a negative relationship with vulnerability (Pandey and Jha, 2012):