Trends in Productivity growth rates of chickpea crop in selected states
The analysis of productivity trends of chickpea crop in the selected states in the present study reveals that, at the all-India level the average productivity has increased significantly from 642 kg/ha to 960 kg/ha by 49.53 percent during 1971- 2015. Among the states, the highest productivity growth is seen in undivided Andhra Pradesh at 3.94 percent followed by Maharashtra (2.42 percent), Madhya Pradesh (1.57 per cent and Rajasthan with 0.4 percent for the same period. The record level of average productivity is seen in undivided Andhra Pradesh followed by Madhya Pradesh at 1158 kg/ha and 1132 kg/ha respectively during 2011-13. (Table 1 and Fig 1). On comparing the decadal growth rates in the selected states, in the 1970’s, Rajasthan and Maharashtra registered positive growth rates, while, undivided Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh showed negative growth rates in productivity. The lower growth rate of productivity was attributed to the fact that, this crop has not received much attention for cultivation under rainfed condition. This crop being prone to pest and diseases is also one of the reason for low yield. In the 1980’s the growth rate was negative only in Rajasthan. From the 1990’s, there has been a significant positive growth rates in productivity in all the selected states due to the development and adoption of the niche specific improved cultivars. Only undivided Andhra Pradesh registered positive growth rate of 3.32 percent in the last five years (2011-2015) due to the adoption of the short duration and wilt resistant improved cultivars by more than 95 percent of the chickpea cultivators. However, the growth rate was negative in the other selected states. At the all-India level, chickpea productivity has increased by 1.01 percent (CAGR) during 1971-2015.
Cost of production (Rs/quintal) of chickpea in selected states
The data in Table 2 shows an upward trend in the cost of production of chickpea in all the selected states in India with the highest increase of 225 percent in Andhra Pradesh followed by Maharashtra (149%), Madhya Pradesh (146.53 %) and Rajasthan (141.34%) during 1996-2013. Among the selected states, the highest cost of production is noticed in the case of Andhra Pradesh followed by Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Changing cost of inputs to total input cost (2005-06 to 2013-14)
In addition to the above analysis of change in cost of production of chickpea, also calculated change in cost shares of different inputs in total cost of production and the growth rates of inputs cost are calculated based on the secondary data on cost of cultivation data of chickpea in the selected states during 2005-2013. The total input cost of chickpea crop has increased over a period of time in all the selected states in the study period. In general in all the selected states, wages of labour accounted for the major share in total cost of production followed by the rent value of own land, seed, fertilizers cost, interest paid on fixed and working capital, irrigation and pesticide. Except the rental value of owned land, all other inputs such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides and labour wages have shown an increasing trend in the selected states.
In the case of Madhya Pradesh, rental value of owned land accounted for 33 percent of the cost followed by wages paid to human, animal and machinery labour during 2005-06. However, in 2013-14, the highest share in total cost was on account of wages paid to human, animal and machine labour followed by rental value of own land. Share of wages of labour has increased from 28 per cent to 44 per cent of total input cost between 2005-06 and 2013-14. Where as fertilizer and pesticides cost has increased marginally.
In the case of Rajasthan, labour wages and cost of seed and fertilizer have increased significantly whereas the rental value of own land and pesticide cost declined during the study period. Pesticide input cost is more or less zero from 2011 to 2013. In the case of Maharashtra, the share of wages of labour in total input cost was the highest compared to other states at 45 percent and over a period of time the labour cost has remained more or less the same. Proposition of seed and irrigation costs have declined in the study period. The cost of other variables has increased in the same period. In the case of undivided Andhra Pradesh, seed cost decreased till 2008-09, but thereafter the share of seed cost increased marginally. The major input costs were labour wages and the rental value of land at 39 percent and 28 percent respectively during 2013-14. Irrigation charges are completely absent as chickpea is cultivated as a rain-fed crop in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
Table 3 provides the details on the compound growth rates of quantity and unit cost of the inputs used in chickpea crop in the study period. The quantity of seed used has shown a positive growth rate in all the selected states except in Rajasthan. The unit cost of seed price has registered a positive growth rate of around 6-10 percent in all the states. Fertilizer quantity used registered a 4-5 per cent growth rate in all the states except in Maharashtra with 16.98 percent. Prices of inputs also showed a positive growth rate of around 13-14 percent in all the selected states in the study period. Working hours by human labour has showed a negative growth rate in Madhya Pradesh and undivided Andhra Pradesh and a positive growth rate in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. The decline in working hours by human labour indicates the replacement of human labour by farm machinery. The wage rates of human labour have shown 17-18 percent growth rate in all the selected states. Use of animal labour has drastically declined in all the states because of increased use of machine labour as the cost of animal labour was on higher side in the study period. The same is reflected by negative growth rates for animal labour working hours and positive growth rates for the cost of animal labour.
Estimation of Total Input Index, Total Output Index and Total Factor Productivity Index
Madhya Pradesh
In the case of Madhya Pradesh, the total output index shows a mixed trend. The total input index has significantly declined, from 100-91.25 in the study period. Total output index has out-performed the total input index. Total factor productivity increased from 100 to 134 from 2005-06 to 2011-12 and gradually declined thereafter to 124 during 2013-14. The average TFP is registered at 115.67 in the study period. TFP has shown marginal deviation from the trend line.
Rajasthan
The total output index declined initially and increased sharply after that during the study period. TII also declined continuously except during 2009-10. Here also the TOI out- performed the TII, while, TFP had a mixed trend. On the whole it increased significantly to 155 in 2013-14 from the lowest level of 98 in 2009-10. Like the TOI, the TFP also increased gradually during the study period. The overall average TFP was around 127.34 during the study period. In the case of Rajasthan, the TFP had initially increased in 2006-07 and declined to 98.97 in 2009-10. Thereafter, it increased to 158.
Maharashtra
In the case of Maharashtra, the TOI has been increasing continuously during study period. The TII has been more or less at the same level with a marginal increase between 2005-06 and 2013-14. On the whole, the TFP increased with increased TOI and TII but showed a mixed trend during few years with a higher fluctuation. The average TFP was registered at 121.3.
Undivided Andhra Pradesh
In the case of undivided Andhra Pradesh, TOI increased initially but declined sharply in 2011-12 and 2012-13and again recovered in the next year. The same trend is seen in TII also. But the TFP has shown more fluctuations irrespective of the trend of TOI and TII. From this we can infer that the TFP is influenced by the other factors which are not included in the analysis. The average TFP index is 94.17 which is much below than the average TFP of the other states. Andhra Pradesh had the highest TII at 203.82 in 2013-14. Higher TII than the TOI, resulted in lower TFP of 56.6 in 2013-2014. This is the lowest TFP compared to all the other states in the study period. The TFP graph illustrates the high degree of fluctuation from 2005-06 to 2013-14.
From the above analysis (Table 4) it is clear that, TOI is not in tandem with the TII all the time i.e., TOI is not always increasing with rising TII and sometimes it shows a declining trend. So there is a need to look into factors other than the inputs used in the above analysis to examine the sources of total factor productivity growth. The other factors identified to study the source of TFP are, percentage share of chickpea irrigated area, cropping pattern, road density and storage capacity for the harvested produce.
Annual growth rate in input use, output, TFP and real cost of production for chickpea in different states of India (2005 to 2013)
The calculated annual growth rates of input, output and TFP indices for chickpea crop grown in major producing states of India are illustrated in Table 5. From the analysis it is clear that performance of technological change in chickpea crop was significant in all the selected states which is indicated by the positive TFP growth rates. The highest TFP growth was registered in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Andhra Pradesh experienced a moderate growth of 4.71percent and low growth is seen in the major chickpea producing state Madhya Pradesh. These results are slightly in contrast from the findings of
Ramesh Chand et al., (2011).
In the traditionally chickpea cultivating states v
iz., Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the input used index has registered a negative growth with a positive growth in the output index. In the case of Maharashtra, the rise in input use at the marginal rate of 0.11 per cent has raised the output index significantly by 7.29 per cent, which has resulted in positive TFP growth. However, the TFP growth is outperforming the output growth in these three chickpea growing states. These types of positive TFP growth may be due to spatial shift in area under crops (
Ramesh Chand et al., 2011) in the recent times and this positive growth is not due to technological change. So the share of TFP growth in output growth in such cases has not been reported in the study. In undivided Andhra Pradesh, the input index has increased by 23.71 per cent and the output index increased moderately by 5.557 per cent with TFP of 4.71 per cent. The share of technology in output growth of chickpea was estimated at 84.5 percent for undivided Andhra Pradesh. Technology and managerial inputs have contributed to meaningful TFP growths for gram in undivided Andhra Pradesh. Technological change has resulted in achieving historically high productivity levels i.e. 1250 kg/ha in Andhra Pradesh state and led to a silent revolution in chickpea production in Andhra Pradesh. No gains were experienced for chickpea in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh in the study period.
The states witnessing a positive growth in TFP have experienced an increase in per unit nominal cost of production which was justified in the above analysis. The TFP growth analysis indicates that, the positive TFP growth rates particularly in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra are due to the area expansion under chickpea crop than technological intervention. Therefore, priority must be given in these states for adopting the developed technologies for achieving the potential yield levels and self-sustained chickpea production in India.
Sources of TFP in chickpea crop in the study area
From the above analysis it is clear that TFP registered a positive growth rates irrespective of the growth rates in TII and TOI. This may be due to factors other than the inputs used in crop production. Thus the TFP growth rate can be affected by various factors such as, cropping intensity, literacy, research investment, extension services, human capital, balanced application of plant nutrients, Infrastructural development and climatic factors (
Ramesh Chand et al., 2011). It is important to understand the relative importance of these productivity enhancing factors in determining productivity growth. In order to assess the determinants of TFP, the total factor productivity index of the selected states Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh is regressed against the variables such as percentage share of net chickpea irrigated area, road density, cropping intensity and cold storage capacity in the respective states. Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh states are taken as a dummy variable in the model to see the variation across these selected states. Here the state of Madhya Pradesh which is a traditional chickpea growing state was suppressed in the model to see the variation across the selected states in comparison to Madhya Pradesh state as it is the largest chickpea growing state.
The results furnished in Table 6 shows that only road density which is considered an infrastructure variable (i.e., length of the total surface road length in km standardized for one lakh cropped area) was found to be important source of growth in TFP in all the selected states. This implies that, with one unit change in road density (Length of the road in km per one lakh net cropped area), the TFP increases by 0.05 percent in the selected states in the study. The other selected variables, suchas, percentage share of net cropped irrigated area, cold storage capacity and cropping intensity are not found statistically significant in the study area. TFP growth in undivided Andhra Pradesh is comparatively better than in MP which turned out to be statistically significant at 5 per cent level. The calculated R
2 value is only 47.18 per cent which implies that the selected variable explains only 47.18 per cent of the variation in TFPG. So there are other variables such as research and extension expenditure for chickpea crop improvement, rainfall distribution, literacy rate and financial institutions may have impact on the growth of TFP of the crop. But due to lack of data availability in specific to chickpea crop these variables are not included in the above model.