An analysis of growth trend, instability and determinants of rice production in Assam

Rice is one of the most dominant crop in Assam occupying about 70 per cent of the net cultivated area. It  accounts for about 6 per cent of the national rice area and 4 per cent of production of India. This paper makes  an attempt to examine the growth trend, instability and factors influencing rice production in Assam over the period 1972-73 to 2014-15. Annual Compound Growth Rates of area, production and yield is calculated using log-linear function. Coefficient of Variation is employed to assess the instability of rice production in Assam. To estimate the impact of various factors on rice production in Assam, three types of models are used namely linear model, log-linear model and a log-linear model with autocorrelation corrections. In all the models, the dependent variable is rice yield and the independent variables are yearly average rainfall, yearly average temperature of the state; area of rice cultivation in hectare; area covered by HYV seeds in hectare; area covered by irrigation in hectare; fertilizer used in kg per hectare. The estimated result of log-linear model with autocorrelation corrections shows that among the various determinants influencing rice production during the period 1972 to 2014, area under rice cultivation in hectares; area covered by HYV seeds in hectare; fertilizer used in kg per hectare were found to have a positive significant impact on rice production in Assam. Temperature is found to have a negative impact on rice production.