Irrigation plays a crucial role in agricultural development by ensuring dependable water availability, increasing crop productivity and facilitating multiple cropping practices. It also contributes to food security, higher farm income and sustainable agricultural growth. An Agrarian History of South Asia explained that agricultural progress was driven by improvements in crop and livestock management, intensive land use and labour-capital inputs, with emphasis on irrigation, drainage and organic manure (Ludden, 1999). Irrigation is essential in Udalguri of BTAD because agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the area. Udalguri was purposively selected for the study among the five districts of BTR because of its relatively high irrigated area. Udalguri was formerly a sub-divisional headquarters of the Darrang district and became a separate district under the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD) after the signing of the Bodo Accord in 2004. The farming season is classified into three  types: 1. Kharif season, 2. Rabi season and 3. Zaid season. Cultivation in three agricultural seasons increases cropping intensity, agricultural production and farmers’ income. Nayaka et al., (2021) found that use of suitable water-management practices and improved cultivars to enhance rice growth while making more efficient use of irrigation water. Bhargavi et al., (2019) observed that diversified cropping systems practiced during kharif, rabi and summer seasons significantly increase productivity, profitability and resource-use efficiency while ensuring regular farm income throughout the year. Gaytri (2023) observed that rabi crops are essential for food security, economic stability and sustainable agriculture, while also supporting rural livelihoods and crop diversification. Likewise, Bamire and Oke (2004) found that efficient dry-season irrigation and proper use of fadama land enhanced farmers’ profitability in Nigeria. Gokulnath and Rathore (2025) found that good irrigation facilities and modern technology of production were important drivers of farm diversification in Punjab and Tamil Nadu. The irrigated integrated farming system was more profitable and generated more employment than the rainfed model Sharma et al., (2017). Mauriya et al., (2025) found that irrigated maize + vegetable pea intercropping was the most productive and profitable system in Bihar, though its water-use efficiency was not assessed. Goyari (2014) found that farmers who have access to naturally flowing water and who can afford artificial means of irrigation were found cultivate summer paddy. De and Bodosa (2014), found out that during off season crop diversity is slow because of the slow progress of irrigation. Thus, irrigation is essential for sustaining cultivation throughout the year in region with irregular rainfall. The Irrigation Department of Assam has implemented various schemes and programmes to enhance irrigation intensity through year-round water supply and the promotion of multiple cropping. Major schemes include the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY-HKKP), Assam Bikash Yojana (ABY), NABARD-funded irrigation projects and different minor irrigation schemes implemented by the Irrigation Department.  Therefore, it is important to examine the growth trends of irrigation system in the study region. Muthyam (2017) found significant underutilization of irrigation potential in major irrigation projects and reported that about 5,056 hectares remained unutilized in the Jurala Irrigation Project despite infrastructure creation. Mishra et al., (2020) also observed a considerable gap between IPC and IPU and emphasized the usefulness of remote sensing and satellite data in assessing irrigation utilization. Biswas and Bhattacharyya (2020) revealed that although both IPC and IPU increased during different Five Year Plans, the gap between them widened due to inefficient irrigation management and infrastructural deficiencies. Similarly, Shah and Gulati (2020) found that irrigation utilization in Punjab increased rapidly with the expansion of irrigation infrastructure, but excessive dependence on groundwater created sustainability concerns due to groundwater depletion. Despite the expansion of irrigation infrastructure, the gap between IPC and IPU remains a matter of concern in many regions. It has been found that irrigation is an important agricultural input and the government has introduced various schemes to increase agricultural production. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the growth trends and the relationship between IPC and IPU in the district. The present study attempts to analyse the trends, growth rates, impact and responsiveness of IPC on IPU in both the major and minor irrigation systems of Udalguri district.
Objectives: Objectives of the study were given below.
1. To examine the growth trends of IPC and IPU of the major and minor irrigation systems in Udalguri district.
2. To analyze the impact and responsiveness of IPC on IPU under the major and minor irrigation systems inUdalguri district.
       
This study was based on secondary data. The data were collected from Statistical Handbook of BTAD, Statistical Handbook of Assam, books, journal, websites, etc. 3 YMA, CGR, simple linear regression analysis and elasticity were used to measure the growth trends, impact of IPC on IPU and responsiveness of IPU on IPC between IPC and IPU of Udalguri district.
 
Year moving average
 
The 3 YMA is computed to smooth the time series data by averaging values over three consecutive years. This helps in reducing random fluctuations and highlighting the underlying trend. Formula is given below:

 

 

Where, 
Y_t  = Value of the variable (IPC and IPU of major and minor irrigation systems) in year t.
       
The moving average series is then used for further growth analysis instead of raw data.
 
Estimation of CGR
 
After smoothing the data using the 3-year moving average, the CGR is estimated by using the following formula:

 

Where,
Y_t  = Final year value.
Y₀  = Initial year value.
n = Number of years.
       
If CGR > 0 → positive growth, if CGR < 0 →  negative growth and if CGR = 0 → no growth.  A higher CGR indicates faster growth of the variable over time.
 
Log regression model
 
The responsiveness on IPU of IPC was measured through a log regression model (elasticity model). The formula used to measure the responsiveness (elasticity) of IPC on IPU is the log regression model:
 

Log (Y) = a + b log(X) + ε

 
Where,
Y = IPU.
X = IPC. 
a = Intercept (constant term).
b = Elasticity coefficient or responsiveness coefficient.
ε = Error term.
 
Simple regression analysis
 
The formula for simple linear regression analysis, where IPC is the independent variable and IPU is the dependent variable, is:
 

Y= a + bx + ε

 
Where,
Y = IPU.
X = IPC.
a = Intercept or constant term.
b = Regression coefficient showing the impact of IPC on IPU.
ε = Error term.
 
Growth trends of IPC and IPU of major and minor irrigation system of Udalguri
 
The analysis of the growth trend of IPC and IPU of  major and minor irrigation systems helps to understand the performance, efficiency and sustainability of irrigation development in Udalguri. Following table shows the result of performance of IPC and IPU of major and minor irrigation systems.
       
Table 1 shows that IPC of major irrigation system rose sharply from 20,733.33 hectares (2008-09) to 69,896.67 hectares (2021-22). This indicates rapid expansion of irrigation infrastructure. IPU increased significantly from 4,240 hectares in 2008-09 to 20116.67 hectares in 2017-18. Then it declined to 17108.33 hectares in 2018-19 and it again rose to 21777.33 hectares in 2021-22. Though utilization fluctuated in some years, the overall trend is strongly upward. The CGR value of indicates that Udalguri district recorded a substantially higher growth rate of 9.80 percent. Similarly, the growth rate of IPU under the major irrigation system shows that Udalguri district experienced a higher growth rate of 13.41 per cent.


       
IPC of minor irrigation system in the study area increased gradually from 26,543.33 hectares in 2008-09 to 64,539 hectares in 2021-22. Some fluctuations in later years suggest uneven expansion. Growth trend of IPU in Udalguri district was zero during the initial years, indicating a delayed utilization of irrigation facilities.  From 2012-13 onward, IPU increased sharply, showing rapid adoption of irrigation. The high CGR of 14.49 per cent reflects a significant improvement in the utilization of irrigation potential compare to 7.07 per cent of IPC. This may be because of implementation of various State Funded, Central Funded and Institutional funded schemes as found in Assam Irrigation (2024).
 
Responsiveness of IPU to IPC of the major and minor irrigation systems in Udalguri district
 
The responsiveness of IPU to IPC in Udalguri helps determine how effectively the created irrigation potential is being utilized. It measures the impact of IPC on IPU and evaluates the efficiency of irrigation infrastructure and management. A higher responsiveness coefficient indicates better utilization of irrigation facilities, while a lower coefficient reflects underutilization of irrigation potential.
       
Table 2 shows that R² value of 0.171 indicates that approximately 17.1 per cent of the variation in IPU Major is explained by IPC Major. The elasticity coefficient of 3.476 indicates that a 1 per cent increase in IPC Major is associated with a 3.476 per cent increase in IPU Major. However, this relationship is not statistically significant, as the p-value (0.236) is greater than 0.05. The result indicates that creation of irrigation potential does not automatically ensure its utilization.


       
In the case of minor irrigation, the R² value of 0.375 indicates that approximately 37.5 per cent of the variation in IPU Minor is explained by IPC Minor. The elasticity coefficient of 1.426 indicates that a 1 per cent increase in IPC Minor is associated with a 1.426 per cent increase in IPU Minor. Since the p-value (0.045) is less than 0.05, the relationship is statistically significant at the 5 per cent level. This result was similar to the finding of Biswas and Bhattacharyya (2020).
       
Overall, the results indicate a positive relationship between IPC and IPU for both major and minor irrigation systems. However, the strength and statistical significance of the relationship differ between the two systems. The relationship is statistically significant for minor irrigation, whereas it is not statistically significant for major irrigation.
 
Impact of IPC and IPU of of major and minor irrigation systems in Udalguri
 
The regression analysis of the impact of IPC on IPU of the major irrigation system in Udalguri is important for examining the relationship between IPC and IPU. This helps measure the extent to which increases in IPC influence IPU and evaluate the effectiveness of irrigation infrastructure and management.
       
Table 3 shows a positive and statistically significant relationship between irrigation potential created (IPC) and irrigation potential utilized (IPU). The IPC coefficient of 0.578 is significant at the 1 per cent level (p = 0.0016), indicating that an increase in irrigation potential created is associated with an increase in irrigation potential utilized. The R² of 0.576 indicates that IPC explains about 57.6 per cent of the variation in IPU, while the remaining variation is explained by other factors. The Adjusted R² (0.541) also indicates reasonably good explanatory power. The F-value of 16.57 with Significance F = 0.0016 confirms that the overall regression model is statistically significant. The intercept of -14,891.6 represents the estimated IPU when IPC is zero. Although it is negative, this value has little practical meaning because zero IPC is not a realistic situation in the study area. Its p-value (0.058) is greater than 0.05, so the intercept is not statistically significant. Overall, the result indicates that creation of irrigation potential has a significant positive association with its utilization. This finding is relevant to Assam, where government reports have highlighted a considerable gap between irrigation potential created and utilized, indicating that creation of irrigation facilities alone is not sufficient and that effective operation and maintenance are also important (Economic Survey of Assam, 2025-26).


       
Table 4 indicates a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between IPC and IPU. The coefficient of IPC is 0.8019, with a t-statistic of 12.046 and a p-value of 0.001, which is below 0.05. This indicates that an increase in IPC is significantly associated with an increase in IPU. Specifically, a one-unit increase in IPC is associated with an estimated 0.8019-unit increase in IPU.



The intercept of -24,260.4 indicates the estimated value of IPU when IPC is zero. Although the intercept is negative, it has limited practical interpretation because zero IPC is not a realistic situation in the study area. However, its p-value of 0.0001  indicates that the intercept is statistically significant at the 5 per cent level.
               
The R² value of 0.924 shows that approximately 92.4 per cent of the variation in IPU is explained by IPC, indicating a very strong explanatory relationship. The Adjusted R² of 0.917 confirms that the model retains very high explanatory power after adjustment. The F-value of 145.11 with p = 0.001 indicates that the overall regression model is statistically significant. Therefore, the results strongly suggest that the creation of irrigation potential has a significant and substantial positive association with its utilization.

The study concludes that both major and minor irrigation systems in Udalguri have experienced considerable growth in irrigation potential creation and utilization over the study period. The findings reveal that expansion of irrigation infrastructure has positively influenced irrigation utilization in the district.
       
The regression and elasticity analyses confirm that IPC has a positive and statistically significant impact on IPU. The responsiveness of IPU to IPC is found to be higher in the minor irrigation system than in the major irrigation system, indicating better utilization efficiency in the minor irrigation sector.
       
Although irrigation utilization has improved significantly, fluctuations and gaps between IPC and IPU still exist in certain years. Therefore, efficient management and proper utilization of irrigation infrastructure are essential for achieving sustainable agricultural development in the district. The findings suggest  that the government should strengthen irrigation infrastructure and ensure the timely maintenance of irrigation projects, farmers should be encouraged to utilize irrigation facilities effectively through awareness programmes and technical support, greater emphasis should be placed on minor irrigation projects, as they demonstrate higher responsiveness and utilization efficiency and sustainable water management practices should be promoted to ensure long-term agricultural development and efficient use of water resources.

I thank Joint Directorate Economics and Statistical of BTC and Assam for giving data to carry out my research work.
 
Author contribution
 
Conceptualization, methodology, data collection, formal analysis, writing and original draft preparation.
 
Funding
 
Not applicable.

The author declare no conflict of interest.