Indian Journal of Animal Research

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Research Article

Indian Journal of Animal Research, volume 54 issue 7 (july 2020) : 912-917

Modelling and Forecasting of Milk Production in Chhattisgarh and India

P. Mishra, Chellai Fatih, H.K. Niranjan, Shiwani Tiwari, Monika Devi, Anurag Dubey
1College of Agriculture, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, Powarkheda-461 001, Madhya Pradesh, India. 
Cite article:- Mishra P., Fatih Chellai, Niranjan H.K., Tiwari Shiwani, Devi Monika, Dubey Anurag (2020). Modelling and Forecasting of Milk Production in Chhattisgarh and India. Indian Journal of Animal Research. 54(7): 912-917. doi: 10.18805/ijar.B-3918.

ABSTRACT

India is accounting for almost 20 percent of total milk production in the world and 70 percent of this share is coming from small, marginal farmers and landless people of the country residing in rural areas and this shows that dairy industry has an important role in social and economic development in India. Dairy is growing with a positive rate as per capita availability has reached to 375 (gms/day) in 2017-18 from 178 (gms/day) in 1990-91. In this study, time series data (2001-02 to 2015-16) on milk production and different milching species population of Chhattisgarh have been used to find out the suitable forecasting models for milk production and population of these mulching animals of Chhattisgarh. To meet the objective of study different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been tried and among all ARIMA (0,2,0) model has been found more suitable for production of milk in India and Chhattisgarh both. Availability of milk is forecasted suitably by ARIMA (0,2,1) and ARIMA(0,1,1) for India and Chhattisgarh respectively. Similarly different ARIMA models have been fitted for population of different species animals. By this study milk production is expected to reach 219.73 MMT and 1.599 MMT by 2022-23 in India and Chhattisgarh respectively.

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