Forecasting eggs production in India

DOI: 10.5958/0976-0555.2015.00143.0    | Article Id: B-2609 | Page : 367-372
Citation :- Forecasting eggs production in India .Indian Journal Of Animal Research.2015.(49):367-372
D.J. Chaudhari* and A.S. Tingre djecon16@gamil.com
Address : PGAV NAIP Project, Department of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Dr. Panjabrao Deshmukh Krishi Vidyapeeth, Akola- 444 104 India.

Abstract

With changing eating habits and rise in prices of pulses there is an increase in demand for protein rich food like poultry products. Considering the pace of population growth and surge in demand for the poultry products like eggs, the country needs to multiply its output. Therefore it is necessary to know the extent of eggs production in future with available resources. The present study aimed to forecast the eggs production in India by using the eggs production data for the period from 1979-80 to 2010-11. To forecast the eggs production ARIMA models were used. To test the reliability of model R2, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used. ARIMA (0,1,0) was the best fitted model. Based on model results the estimated eggs production in India would increase from 64749.84 million during 2011-12 to 75104.87 million during 2017-18.

Keywords

ACF ARIMA Auto regression Forecasting Moving average PACF.

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