Growth and Decomposition Analysis of Major Fruits Grown in Punjab

 

The study has been conducted in order to understand the growth performance of major fruits in Punjab. The study was based on secondary data for a period of 13 years i.e., from 2010-2011 to 2022-2023, collected from Statistical Abstract of Punjab. The major fruits were selected on the basis of highest area sown. For analysing the data, descriptive statistics such as CAGR (compound annual growth rate), Cuddy-Della Valle Index and decomposition analysis were employed.

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
 
The compound annual growth rate in the area, production, and productivity of major fruits were computed by following the exponential equation.
   
After taking log on both sides of equation (1)
   
Where:
Yt = Variable (area/production/productivity) for which growth calculated for the period of 13 years i.e., 2010-11 2022-23.
r =   Compound annual growth rate and ln is the natural logarithm.
CAGR was computed using this formula:
   
Cuddy-Della valle index
 
Variability in area, production and yield of major fruits is measured in relative terms by the Cuddy Della Valle index which is used as a measure of variability in time-series data (e.g. Singh and Byerlee, 1990 and Deb et al., 1999). The simple coefficient of variation over-estimates the level of instability in time-series data characterized by long-term trends whereas the Cuddy-Della Valle index corrects the coefficient of variation by
  Where:
CDI =  Cuddy-Della Valle index, i.e., corrected coefficient of variation (CV).
CV* = Simple estimate of the coefficient of variation (in per cent).
R² =   Coefficient of determination from a time-trend regression adjusted by the number of degrees of freedom.
 
Decomposition analysis
 
It is used to compute the relative contribution of factors as area and Ln(Q) = In (a) + t ln (1 + r) productivity in total output of individual fruit crops. Devi et al. (2017); Ruchi, (2017); Kamble and Wali, (2016) and Basitine and Palanisami, (1994) were applied component analysis models to examine the relative contribution of area and productivity in changing level of output. The general outline of decomposition model is expressed as:
 
   
Where:
Q = Production of major fruits in Punjab.
C = Cultivated area under major fruits.
Y = Yield of major fruits.
 
Then,    
Where:
0 and t =  Time periods such that t >0 by an accounting period (usually single year).
 
Now  
Now substituting the terms represented in (iv) equation into (ii) equation. Or  
Change in production =Yield effect + Area effect +Interaction effect.

Thus, the total change in production is attributed due to area and yield that can be decomposed into three effects viz. yield, area and interaction effects.

Compound growth rate and Instability index of area, production and productivity of kinnow and sweet orange (Table 1)
 
Kinnow is the chief cultivar of the region occupying more than 90 per cent of the total area under citrus varieties (Government of Punjab, 2020). It is grown in some of the districts like Fazilka, Ferozepur, Bathinda, Muktsar and Faridkot are well known for kinnow cultivation. The growth rate of area, production and productivity has been positive and significant with the rate of 1.06 per cent, 3.18 per cent and 2.10 per cent (Table 1). However, out of all the fruits, it grows the least in terms of area and production since area under cultivation has started declining which has been the main driver of production. The instability index shows that the productivity of kinnow has higher instability as compared to other fruits. This may be because of the rapid expansion in area under kinnow (Yogi et al., 2019) and higher profitability and good market value relative to some of the other fruit crops in the state (Grover et al., 2012). However, Due to its limited harvesting season, which starts from mid-January to mid-February, kinnow fruit is currently causing significant challenges in the market. The limitation of this variety’s harvesting period is causing a glut in the market, which lowers the producer’s price. As a result, to break up the kinnow monoculture, new citrus types with different harvesting times are encouraged to be introduced (Chahal, 2023).



Table 1 showed annual growth rate of area, production and productivity under sweet orange found to be 2.40 per cent, 3.31 per cent and 0.88 per cent per annum in the study period respectively. The instability index showed that there was variability in area, production and productivity could be due to Punjab Agricultural University has recommended Early Gold, an early maturing variety of sweet orange (Kumar et al., 2018) for commercial cultivation in the state to meet the demand for pre-winter maturing citrus cultivar. The shifting of some area from kinnow to Early Gold cultivation can play a vital role in enhancing the profitability in citrus cultivation of the region.

The growth rate in area, production and productivity of lemon and mango are presented in Table 2. The compound growth rate of area and production under lemon observed the highest growth among all the fruit crops at the rate of 15.45 per cent and 16.02 per cent respectively due to its wider adapt ability, high yield potential, tolerance to citrus canker, hardy to both hot and cold climatic conditions also have high variability in terms of area and production with the advent of high yielding varieties (Singh, 1992) While, productivity has a low variability.



Mango is the third most important fruit crop of Punjab following citrus and guava (Package of Practices PAU, 2019). Area, production and productivity of growth under mango shows positive and significant at the rate of 2.45 per cent, 3.52 per cent and 1.04 per cent during the study period. It has been observed that instability as it is severely damaged by a number of insect pests that, either directly or indirectly, result in significant output losses, which eventually lowers the profitability of mango growers. Singh 2018 and Singh and Sreedevi (2019) reported around 30 species of insect pests inflicting damage to different parts of mango trees in Punjab.

The perusal of theTable 3 reveals the trend of area, production under litchi had a huge growth rate with positive and significant at the rate of 7.86 per cent and 8.98 per cent respectively which is second highest growth next to lemon. The variation in terms of area and production was enormously high because of its increasing demand and profitability and better export potential (Pandey and Sharma, 1989; Cebeco, 2001). Unlike other states in India where litchi is grown, Punjab’s litchi growers are able to reap large profits since fruits are available from mid to end of June (Singh et al., 2022).



Guava is the second largest major fruit grown in Punjab. The compound growth rate in area, production and productivity was positive and significant for the study period at the rate of 3.70, 4.08 and 0.37 per cent per annum. There was a high instability found in area and production facing numerous horticultural and agronomic issues, including vulnerability to numerous diseases; particularly guava wilt caused by Fusarium (oxysporium pv. psidii). This results in limited fruit development, a short shelf life, a high seed content. and sensitivity to stress (Rai et al., 2010).

Compound growth rate and instability index of area, production and productivity of pear was shown in Table 4. The growth rate of area, production and productivity was positive and significant at the rate of 4.08 per cent, 4.47 per cent and 0.37 per cent per annum during the study period. The instability was found to be high in terms of area and production due to pests and diseases although it provides favorable climatic conditions for growing a wide range of pears. In subtropical regions mainly Punjab pear cultivars like ‘Baggugosha’, ‘Kiefferr’ and Asian pear ‘Patharnakh’ (hard pear) are cultivated commercially both for table and processing purposes and semi-soft cultivars like Punjab Beauty, Punjab Nectar and Punjab Soft are recommended for cultivation (Sawant et al., 2021). The important insect and mite pests of Indian pear orchards are the codling moth, pear psylla, mites and borer (Verma et al., 2010, Husain et al., 2018).


 
Decomposition analysis of major fruits in Punjab
 
Decomposition analysis was carried out to estimate the percentage contribution of area effect, yield effect and interaction effect towards change in production. The perusal of the Table 5 reveals during the study period only area effect was the main contributor in the output growth under kinnow i.e., area effect (51.87%), yield effect (39.75%) and interaction effect (8.38%). On the other hand, the yield effect was playing crucial role by offsetting the area and interaction effect among all the fruit crops except in kinnow.

Area and production have grown positively overtime in the state except under kinnow. The area under kinnow has declined in the last few years due to introduction of new suitable citrus varieties with varying harvesting span to break the monoculture of kinnow. Production of fruits varied mainly due to changes in area, though productivity gradually remained to increase. As per the decomposition analysis, area under kinnow was the major contributing factor to cause change in production whereas, in other fruit crops it was the yield effect which plays a major role. Therefore, productivity can be increased by creating true-to-type nurseries for high-yielding fruit varieties, managing fruit orchards according to scientific principles, and enhancing farmers’ ability to minimize fruit production losses both before and after harvest. Some major issues regarding the production and marketing of high value crops that inhibit the diversification from wheat-paddy such as inefficient marketing system, high price fluctuations, sensitivity to diseases and bad weather conditions, lack of storage facilities and thereby occurrence of post-harvest losses etc. Hence, better pricing policies and cold storage facilities should be developed in the state.

All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.