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Agricultural Price Forecasting using Decomposition-based Hybrid Model

DOI: 10.18805/BKAP435    | Article Id: BKAP435 | Page : 18-22
Citation :- Agricultural Price Forecasting using Decomposition-based Hybrid Model.Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika.2022.(37):18-22
Kapil Choudhary, Girish Kumar Jha, Rajeev Ranjan Kumar, Ronit Jaiswal rrk.uasd@gmail.com
Address : ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi-110 012, India.
Submitted Date : 18-01-2022
Accepted Date : 11-05-2022

Abstract

Agricultural price information needs for decision-making at all levels are increasing due to globalization and market integration. Due to its great reliance on biological processes, agricultural price forecasting is one of the most difficult fields of time series analysis. In this paper, a neural network model based on empirical mode decomposition is used to forecast potato prices. The monthly wholesale price series of potato from Chennai market was decomposed into five independent intrinsic modes (IMFs) and one residual with various frequencies. Then, to forecast these IMFs and residual components independently, an artificial neural network with a single hidden layer was built. Finally, the ensemble output for the original price series is formed by aggregating the forecast outcomes of all IMFs, including residuals. In terms of root mean square error and directional prediction statistics, empirical data show that the suggested ensemble model outperforms a single model.

Keywords

​Artificial neural network Empirical mode decomposition Intrinsic mode function Price forecasting

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