Forecasting based on Markov chain model

DOI: 10.18805/BKAP144    | Article Id: BKAP144 | Page : 17-22
Citation :- Forecasting based on Markov chain model .Bhartiya Krishi Anusandhan Patrika.2019.(34):17-22

Ramasubramanian V., Ravindra Singh Shekhawat and  S. P. Singh

r.subramanian@icar.gov.in
Address :

ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistical Research Institute, New Delhi, India.

Abstract

In this paper, we try to forecast crop yield by the probability model based on Markov Chain theory, which overcomes some of the drawbacks of the regression model. Markov Chain models are not constrained by a parametric assumption and are robust against outliers and extreme values. Here, multiple order Markov chain were utilized.

Keywords

Markov Chain Forecasting Multiple order

References

  1. Agrawal, R. and Jain, R. C. (1996). Forecast of Sugarcane yield using eye estimate along with plant characters, Biom. J., 38, 731-39.
  2. Bhat, U.N. (1984). Elements of applied Stochastic Processes, New York : John Wiley and Sons.
  3. Jain, R.C. and Agrawal, R. (1992). Probability model for crop yield forecasting, Biom. J., 34, 501-11.
  4. Jain, R.,C. and Ramasubramanian, V. (1998). Forecasting of crop yields using second order Markov chain , Jour. Ind. Soc. Agric. Stat., 51, 61-72.
  5. Leung, P.S. and Shang, Y.C. (1989). Modeling Prawn production management system: A Dynamic Markov decision approach, Agricultural Systems, 29, 5 – 20.
  6. Matis, J.H., Saito, T., Grant, W.F. Iwig, W.C. and Ritchie, J.T. (1985). A Markov chain approach to crop yield forecasting, Agricultural Systems, 18, 171-87.
  7. Matis, J.H., Birkett, T. and Boudreaux, D. (1989). An application of the Markov chain Approach to forecasting cotton yield from surveys, Agricultural Systems, 29, 357-70.
  8. Ramasubramanian V. and Jain, R.C. (1999). Use of growth indices in Markov chain models for crop yield forecasting, Biom. J., 41, 99-109.
  9. Ramasubramanian V., Agrawal, Ranjana and Bhar, L.(2004).Forecasting sugarcane yields using multiple Markov chains, Project report, IASRI, New Delhi.
  10. Ramasubramanian V., Agrawal, Ranjana and Bhar, L. (2010) Crop forecasting using multiple Markov chains, Assam Statistical Review, 24(1), 37-56.
  11. Singh, R. and Ibrahim, A.E.I. (1996). Use of spectral data in Markov chain model for crop yield forecasting, Jour. Ind. Soc. Remote Sensing, 24, 145-52.

Global Footprints