Ethiopia is believed to have the largest livestock population in Africa and fifth in the world (
CSA, 2022). There are 61.5 million cattle, 33 million sheep, 38.9 million goats, 1.76 million camelsand over 59.4 million poultry (
CSA, 2022). The country has about 14 million livestock-keeping households (
CSA, 2022;
FAO, 2018). The livestock subsector contributes to the livelihoods of about 60-70 % of the Ethiopian population. Livestock provides food in the form of meat, milk, eggsand honey and non-food products like draught power for crop cultivation, transporting goods and people, source of foreign exchange earnings, input to agro-processing industriesand manure for crops and fuel for cooking (
FAO, 2018). The subsector accounted for about 10 % of Ethiopia’s export income in 2015/16
(Bachewe et al., 2018). In the pastoral management system of the country, livestock provides milk as a means of subsistence and cash to cover family expenses for food grainsand other essential consumer goods (
Behnke and Metaferia, 2013;
Asresie et al., 2015). The livestock serves as hedges/insurance against risk and disaster for those beyond the reach of banking institutions and the source of social respect and recognition
(Shapiro et al., 2017) that determine social status within the community. About 80% of Ethiopian farmers use animal traction to plough their fields. Furthermore, 26.4% of the value of annual crop production and 31% of the total gross value of livestock output is due to the value of the animal draught power (
Behnke and Metaferia, 2011).
Nevertheless, the livestock subsector’s contribution to the rapid economic growth in the last decade was reported as insignificant
(Bachewe et al., 2018). This is despite the large stock of livestock in the country. Low genetic productivity of the animals, poor husbandry, seasonal shortage of animal feeds and their poor management, poor animal health services, inadequate extension,
etc. are factors contributing for factors for the subsector’s little contribution to the country’s economic growth
(Asresie et al., 2015). On the other hand, there is an increasing human population and improved living standards in the country that demand more animal products. To cope with these two recently emerging phenomena, there must be a corresponding increase in livestock products that can be possible through increased number and productivity. Understanding the livestock growth trends and the causes behind along with the available opportunities and constraints is very timely to indicate where the potential remains to transform livestock production and productivity. Furthermore, the information is useful for guiding and formulating proper development policies, strategiesand plans for enhancing the production of livestock products. The objective of this work is to evaluate the growth trends of livestock and livestock holders by analyzing 15 years of
CSA data (2004/05-2018/19), providing valuable information for evidence-based decision-making in livestock policy development.
The information shown here is based on livestock-based
CSA gathered data from 2004/05 to 2018/19. These CSA yearly reported data were imported to Microsoft Excel, organizedand calculated. These meticulously gathered and organized figures were methodically analyzed to provide growth patterns for each livestock species. Similarly, the livestock holders’ information was systematically organized and scrutinized for yearly available progress in line with each livestock species. All of the quantifiable values in this document that have an increasing value (whether expressed in terms of number or percentage) reflect changes that have occurred between the years 2004/05 and 2018/19 and their values are presented in the form of tables or figures. The relationship between the number of cattle and the growth trends of livestock owners was tested using the Pearson correlation. Furthermore, a thorough literature review was carried out to either support or argue the findings obtained through analyzing the
CSA data from 2004-2019.
Progresses in livestock sizes
The data show that all the species of the cattle population in the country have shown an increasing tendency. The cattle stock has grown from 38,749,310 head in 2004/05 to 61,510,258 head in 2018/19 (by a 58.7% increase) with an average yearly increase of 3.4%. In a similar vein, the number of sheep increased from 18,074,721 to 33,020,392 (82.7% increase), the goats from 14,858,646 to 38,963,879 (162.2% increase) and the camels from 458,576 to 1,760,870 (284% increase) (Table 1). On average, the sheep, goat and camel, have recorded 4.6%, 7.3% and 12.3% growth, respectively. The overall livestock growth notion was documented as attributed to an increased number of holds, without considerable productivity progress
(Shapiro et al., 2017; Bachewe et al., 2018). The analysis indicated the goat heads grew from 14.85 to 39 million (162.2% increase, with 10.8% mean annual growth). The sheep population in Ethiopia was about 33 million in 2019 and the sheep heads grew from 18 to 33 million (82.69% increase, with an annual mean 6% increase). The trend analysis indicated that the camel population increased from 458,576 to 1,760,870 (284 % increase) and the chicken from 30.9 million to 59.4 million (92.5% increase) at the end of the analysis year (Table 1).
Livestock population growth trends from regional perspectives
The Oromia region has the most cattle overall, followed by the Amhara and SNNP regions. These three regions together make up around 87% of the nation’s entire cattle stock. However, some regions showed fast progress in the cattle population. For instance, there were over 100% changes in cattle population from 2004/05 to 2018/19 in Afar, Benshangul Gumz (B/Gumz) and Harari regional states and considerable changes in Amhara and SNNP regions. In terms of sheep, Oromia, Amhara and SNNP regions have shown very positive signs of progress. Afar, Somali, Gambella, SNNP and Tigray regional states have registered significant improvement in goat number at the end of 2018/19 than they were in 2004/05. In terms of changes in poultry, Oromiaand Amhara regions have made considerable progress (Table 2). These changes in the livestock population across the regional states might spring from recent attention compelled by market demand for livestock and livestock products following a rise in human population and improved income
(Shapiro et al., 2017; Sewunet 2015) and probably due to an increased number of holders as new entrants to the business. Increased demand for livestock products offers chances for producers to use livestock as a pathway out of poverty and food insecurity (
Kebebe 2019).
Progresses in improved livestock species
The significance of creating an understanding of the status and progress of improved livestock in terms of formulating policies and developing appropriate development plans is immense. It was with this perspective that this study analyzed the progress and status of genetically improved livestock species in the country. Genetic improvement of indigenous breeds through crossbreeding with improved bulls to enhance the productivity of local cows was started more than 40 years ago
(Gebreyohanes et al., 2021). According to this analysis, there was very slow progress in a general number of improved livestock in the country. So far, about 2.08% of cattle and 14% of the chickens were registered improved at the end of the analysis period. Almost all sheep, camels and goats were assessed as indigenous (
CSA, 2019). The fast changes in improved chicken might be due to the sector’s demand for a relatively small capital investment and small land to serve as employment and entrepreneurship opportunities particularly attractive for young people and women (
FAO, 2019;
Wodajo et al., 2020). However, the steady progress of improved livestock numbers and the prevalence of under-improved stock that are with low productivity genetic makeup indicates a lack of policy and technology support (
Ashley, 2019;
Jemberu, 2014;
Kebebe, 2019;
Bachewe et al., 2018; Gebreyohanes et al., 2021).
Trends in livestock utilization
The total number of livestock utilized to produce products was also analyzed to understand if the trends go in line with the livestock population. Accordingly, the number of cattle used for milk and meat production indicated a significant increase from 267,572 and 5,896,408 to 570,877 (113% increase) and 7,090,619 (20% increase), respectively (
CSA, 2004-2019). Even if there is an increase in the number of milking cows and cow milk remains the sole source of milk accounting for over 92% of the total milk, only a 20% change has been recorded in cattle milk output and this is in line with numerous research findings
(Bachewe et al., 2018; Mihret et al., 2017; Kebebe, 2019;
Yimam, et al., 2021).
The number of goats used for milk production has increased by 363.3%. However, the national goat milk share is very low and constitutes only about 5% of the total milk at the end of the analysis year. According to different sources (
Hagos, 2017;
Mestawet et al., 2012), goats contribute over 10% of milk production and milk consumption. The number of milking camels increased by 377.7% and the milk output by 157.3% despite the worthy progress of contributions of camels to the total milk production still did not exceed 10% (maximum 8.5%).
Similar to the progress in the number of milking livestock, the number of livestock reared for meat purposes has increased (Table 3). Goat’s contribution to the total meat production of the country has increased from 13% to 20% and reports are revealing about 14% of meat products comes from goat and this increases stems from the wide recognition of goat’s socio-economic importance (
Negassa Asfaw and Gebremedhin. 2011;
Sewunet, 2015;
Wodajo et al., 2020) and their full potential contribution to poverty reduction and food security
(Solomon et al., 2014). The analysis also revealed an increase in the number of camels utilized to produce meat, from 7,516 to 27,338. (263.7% increase) and this could signify camel camel-based livelihood system is becoming more feasible in drylands than other agricultural-based livelihood systems due to their more adaptive nature to rangeland resources where climate change is often practiced (
FAO 2010b;
Asresie et al., 2015).
Trends in livestock age and sex progress
The analysis of the cattle age and sex group shows the majority of the population (
i.e. accounting for 62.21% of the population) falls within the age group from 3 to 10 years. of the total population, about 55.67% were femalesand 44.32 % were males (
CSA, 2019). The analysis of the sheep population showed 27.14% and 72.86% of the male and female, respectively and the majority (53.65%) were 2 years and older from which 50.59% of them used for breeding and only 2.3% for mutton purposes. The goat population aged two years and older accounts for 62.4% of the total and 42.8% of the goats for breeding (
CSA, 2019).
Livestock owner analysis
Analysis of CSA data on livestock owners revealed a 53% increase in the number of cattle owners, from 11.3 million to 17.3 million, with a 3.5% mean yearly increase. Additional analysis of the holding patterns by the head of cattle showed that households with 50-99 head of cattle have expanded significantly, from 5,673 to 26,871 (373.7% increase) and were followed by those with 20-49 head of cattle. In general, households with large numbers of cattle heads have experienced more growth than households with smaller and medium numbers of cattle heads. Given the growing demand for meat and milk as a result of the rapid growth in human population and rising per capita income, the trend of improved semi-commercial cow-rearing appears to be market-oriented (Table 4).
There were around 6.13 million sheep-holding households (HHs) at the end of the analysis period (2018/19). With yearly mean growths of 3.8%, the population increased from 3.9 million in 2004/05 (a 57.5% rise). The percentage of HHs having a big number of sheep significantly grew in the growth trends. To this fact, HHs holding 50-99 and 100-199 sheep increased significantly during the years of 2018/19 than in 2004/05, nearly by 500-660%. However, small-scale owners with 1-4 sheep are still responsible for around 62% of sheep production, indicating the existence of plenty of potential for commercial sheep production (Table 5).
Similarly, HHs holding goats increased by 70.4% with a mean annual growth rate of 4.7%. Further study on the goats holding categories revealed the number of HHs holding 50-99 and 100-199 goat heads has increased from 8463 to 66983 and from 2042 to 16483 with goats from 100-199, indicating 691.5 and 707.2% increase, respectively. This might be due to the recently increased demand for goat meatand business for goat production becomes easier to start and less capital intensive. This offers an opportunity for producers to be involved in large-scale business (
Kebebe, 2019;
Tilahun and Schmidt, 2012;
Wodajo et al., 2020). However, 80% of the HHs still manage less than 10 goat heads, on average and they are the largest goat meat producers in the country.
For every species of livestock, there was a strong correlation with significant (p<0.01) values showing a strong association between the number of animals and the livestock owners (Table 6). This showed that the benefits of modern inputs, such as superior breeds and food, were significantly less in explaining the livestock growths and that an increase in the number of holders has produced an increase in the number of livestock
(Bachewe et al., 2018; Gebreyohanes et al., 2021; Mestawet et al., 2012; Shapiro et al., 2017).
