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An Economic Analysis of Growth and Instability of Vegetable Production in Eastern India

Swapnil Gupta1,*, S.R. Devegowda2, Shivananda P. Yarazari3, Jyoti Chaudhary4, Ashutosh Kumar 5
1Indira Gandhi National Open University, Regional Centre, Shimla-171 009, Himachal Pradesh, India.
2Department of Agricultural Economics, Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Doimukh-791 112, Arunachal Pradesh, India.
3Department of Agricultural Extension, Koneru Lakshmaiah University, Vaddeswaram-522 302, Andhra Pradesh, India.
4College of Horticulture and Forestry, Thunag, Mandi, Dr. Y.S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni, Solan-175 048, Himachal Pradesh, India.
5Department of Horticulture, Narayan Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Gopal Narayan Singh University, Jamuhar, Sasaram, Rohtas-821 305, Bihar, India.

ABSTRACT

Background: The study examined the patterns of growth and volatility in vegetable production within India. The instability observed in vegetable production has led to significant disruptions in both supply and farm earnings. This escalating volatility in agricultural production, prices and farm income has raised apprehensions. The research assesses the expansion and instability in the cultivation of specific vegetables, Brinjal (Solanum melongena), Cabbage (Brassica oleracea), Onion (Allium cepa), Okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) as well as the aggregate vegetable output from the period spanning 1994-95 to 2021-22 in India.

Methods: The findings pertaining to growth (CAGR) patterns reveal a sense of inconsistency across regions, despite heightened production and increased cultivation areas dedicated to vegetables and witnessed significant increase in growth of vegetable production in India.

Result: The analysis of instability highlights that the states of Odisha, Bihar and West Bengal exhibit relatively lower susceptibility to instability compared to Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, states with larger cultivation areas. The state-level analysis does not reflect the complete picture of problems in vegetable production and production problems under estimates affects to farm income. Need for addressing risks in farm income by devising area-specific crop insurance or other suitable mechanisms.

INTRODUCTION

India, the primary centre of origin and secondary centre of many vegetable crops, also possesses large variability in many important introduced vegetable crops. Globally, vegetable production has recorded intensive growth on a per capita basis. This trend is particularly strong in developing countries. India has witnessed a significant increase in vegetable production over the last two decades (IIVR, 2019). Vegetables can transform our food systems towards healthier diets and more sustainable production systems while creating value and job opportunities (Anbukkarasi et al., 2013). Vegetables cover 34.41 per cent of the world’s total agricultural area. This trend is particularly strong in developing countries. India has witnessed a significant increase in vegetable production over the last two decades. The production of vegetables has increased from 93.85 million tonnes in 2000-2001 to 334.60 million tonnes in 2021-22. The horticulture growth is a sunrise along with the food grain production of country and has been giving it a tough competition Fig 1.

Fig 1: Food grain production and horticulture production.


 
The consumption pattern of fruits and vegetables per person was associated with the countries’ socio-economic status where the low-income countries have lower consumption per capita than high-income countries (Dubowitz et al., 2008, Pessoa et al., 2015, Miller et al., 2016). The country’s diverse climate offers a vast production base for vegetables. Globally it ranks second in vegetable production; however, the county is the largest producer of Okra and ranks second in the production of green peas, tomato, cabbage, cauliflower and brinjal. India witnesses nearly 4.6-15.9% wastage in fruits and vegetables annually, due to lack of modern harvesting practices and inadequate cold chain infrastructure (Opportunities in Fruits and Vegetables Sector in India, 2017). The export and import of fresh and processed vegetables have increased with the liberalisation, globalisation and ease of trade restrictions (Iswarya et al., 2024). The existence of a vast production base offers India tremendous opportunities for export. During 2019-20, India exported vegetables worth Rs. 12,146.32 Crore/ USD 1,511.14 Millions (APEDA, 2022). Even though India’s share is merely 1 per cent globally, there is still acceptance of its horticulture product. The projected forecast of vegetables and fruits of the Indian scenario representsa promising exponential growth system Fig 2.

Fig 2: Projected production of vegetables and fruit in India.


 
Despite progress in irrigation and technology, agriculture production and income are subject to a large year-to-year fluctuations, playing havoc with farmers’ livelihood and adversely affecting their decisions to invest in farming (Chand et al., 2008). The food production and agriculture industries can implement adaptation practices that ensure an increase in food production with lower environmental burdens (Tuomisto et al., 2008). Moreover, Timmer (2005) stated that variation or instability in agricultural production is an important issue to be discussed because of volatility in agricultural production due to existence of external shocks (Kaur and Kaur, 2024).
 
Several attempts have been made to examine the extent of instability in the food grains in India (Mehra, 1981; Hazell, 1982, Dev, 1987, Chand and Raju, 2008). However, in case of vegetables, not many extensive researches have been conducted. The paper deals with the strategies to mitigate the risk and develop a better understanding of risk management.
 
The study has estimated the growth trend and instability analysis at the major vegetable producing states of eastern India, particularly Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Odhisa, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal for vegetable crops, particularly Brinjal, Cabbage, Onion, Okra and total vegetables. It has explored how vegetable production’s growth and instability have coalesced the risk at the state level.
 

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The paper has used time-series data on area, production and yield at the state levels as well as national level for Brinjal, Cabbage, Onion, Okra and the respective state’s total vegetables. The data is referred from the National Horticulture Board (various issues) and Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. The analysis was conducted for the data covering the time period of 1994-95 to 2020-21 for both the state and national level. The states under study have been chosen purposively as they exhibited high acreage in terms of area and production.
 
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
 
The compound annual growth rate was computed by fitting the following exponential functions below.

The function takes the form of a linear equation in logarithmic form and becomes log-linear as under:
 
                              Log Y= log a + log b
Compound growth rate (CGR) = (Antilog β-1) x100
 
Where:
Y= Trend value of dependent variable (area/ total production/yield).
a= Constant.
b= Trend coefficient (slope of the line).
t= Time variable (Years).
The t-test performed to test the significance of β.
 
For this analysis, the Growth rate values (in per cent) are divided into three groups, which indicate the different ranges of growth rates Table 1.

Table 1: Ranges of growth rates in area, production and yield, in per cent.


 
The index of instability was computed in order to examine the nature and degree of instability in the area, production and yield of concerned vegetables in India at major producing states levels. A linear trendy = a+bt +e fitted to the indices of area, production and productivity and trend co-efficient b’ was tested. For a better measure of variability, we adopted the instability index, which was developed by Cuddy and Della (1978).
 

Where:
II-Instability Index.
CV - Coefficient, variation.
R2- Coefficient determination from a time-trend regression adjusted by the number of degrees offreedom.
 
The measure uses a variable over time that should satisfy two minimum properties to estimate instability. Firstly, it should not include deviations in the data series that arise due to secular trend or growth. Secondly, it should be comparable across data sets having different means (Chand and Raju, 2009). For this analysis, the Instability Index values (in per cent) are divided into three groups, which indicate the different range of instability Table 2.

Table 2: Ranges of instability indices per cent.


 
Decomposition analysis
 
Decomposition analysis was used in order to measure the area effect, yield effect and production effect and the relative percentage contribution of area and yield towards the change in total vegetable output. The change in vegetable production during any time period was decomposed into different components in the following manner which was used by Aladdin and Tisdell (1986).
 
                          ∆P = [Ao*∆Y] + [Yo*∆A] + [“A*∆Y]

Change in production = Yield effect +Area effect + Interaction effect
Po,Ao and Yo = Area, production and yield in the base year. 
Pn, An and Yn = Area, production and yield in a current year.
 

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The main focus of this paper was to examine the year-to-year fluctuations in vegetable production and their effect on the instability in crop output. Accordingly, instability in the area, production and yield of major vegetable crops of eastern India were studied at the national level and state-level during the time period (1994-95 to 2021-22).
 
Growth, Instability and Decomposition of Brinjal in major the states of India
 
The current status as well as the past performance of the crucial vegetables viz. Brinjal, Cabbage, Onion, Okra and total vegetables of the major vegetable producing states of eastern India were analysed. During the period 1994 to 2021, the compound growth rate was examined in area, production and productivity of major vegetables. The maximum growth rate was recorded (Table 3) for Brinjal in West Bengal for area and production at (4.84 per cent) and (1.975 per cent) respectively. In contrast, the yield was highest in the case of Odisha (1.975). This yield was higher than the national level average of the total brinjal production; Uttar Pradesh and Bihar recorded negative numbers in area and production.
 
The Instability in area, production and yield of brinjal has been presented in Table 3. The instability index at national level was reported to be the least for area at 1.10 per cent, followed by 2.07 per cent in production and 2.46 per cent in yields.

Table 3: Compound annual growth rates and instability indices of brinjal for different states for the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).


 
In state-wise study, the instability was reported maximum in the case of Uttar Pradesh for area, production as well as yield; followed by West Bengal, which exhibited the highestinstability in terms of the growth rates.

A perusal of Table 4 revealed the decomposition analysis of brinjal, where the estimates of the area effect were highest in the case of Uttar Pradesh which exhibited the least growth rate and highest instability. Despite showing a greater level of instability, West Bengal still has the highest share of the interaction effect.

Table 4: Decomposition of change in production of brinjal in different states (1994-95 to 2020-21) for the period.


 
Growth, instability and decomposition of cabbagein major the states of India
 
A perusal of the Table 5 revealed a negative growth coupled with high degree of instability in case of Uttar Pradesh for area, production as well as yield. The state of West Bengal witnessed a positive and high growth rate; however, it too was coupled with a high level of instability. Chhattisgarh recorded the highest growth rate in area and production with 8.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent , respectively but suffered from a high degree of instability. The national average was positive and significant and had a relatively low degree of instability. The estimation of decomposition analysis results in Table 6 revealed the highest interaction effect under West Bengal with 48.83 per cent and highest area contribution was under Bihar with 37.89 per cent and maximum yield effect at the national level with 63.92 per cent.

Table 5: Compound annual growth rates and instability indices of cabbage for different states for the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).



Table 6: Decomposition of change in production of cabbage in different states (1994-95 to 2021-22) for the period.


 
Growth, instability and decomposition of onionin major the states of India
 
A perusal of Table 7 revealed that Bihar outshined the rest of the states in all three measurement statistics of area, production and yield with 6.73 per cent, 13.11 per cent and 5.98 per cent, respectively. The national aggregate result of onion was also promising, with a 9.26 per cent growth in production. As compared to the rest of the states, there is a moderate rise in the growth rate of Chhattisgarh coupled with a low level of instability. The growth and instability results of Uttar Pradesh showed a negative growth in area accentuated with a high degree of instability.

Table 7: Compound annual growth rates and instability indices of onion for different states for the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).


 
The decomposition analysis revealed a negative yield and interaction effect under Uttar Pradesh (Table 8). The maximum area contributing to the production was under West Bengal with 26.06 and the contribution of yield was highest in Odisha with 51.89 and the interaction effect was maximum in Bihar.

Table 8: Decomposition of Change in Production of Onion in different states the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).


 
Growth, instability and decomposition of okra in major the states of India
 
A perusal of Table 9 depicting the growth rate and instability of Okra, it was observed that Bihar exhibited the highest growth rate in the area, production and yield wit 6.73 per cent, 13.11 per cent and 5.98 per cent respectively. Next to Bihar is the national aggregate of Okra for area, production and yield with values 6.21 per cent, 9.26 per cent and 2.88 per cent respectively. West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh both exhibit low growth rate and high instability. Chhattisgarh had a moderate growth rate in area and production and a negative growth rate in yield. The decomposition analysis results Table 10 further revealed an approximated production contribution of area and yield was 47.39 and 42.43 for India.

Table 9: Compound annual growth rates and instability indices of okra for different states for the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).



Table 10: Decomposition of change in production of okra in different states the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).


 
Growth, instability and decomposition of total vegetables in major the states of India
 
The growth and instability of the total vegetables in the concerned states understudy was estimated as in Table 11. The state of Chhattisgarh was in the lead with the highest growth rate under area and production at 13.76 per cent and 13.71 per cent respectively and West Bengal exhibited the highest growth rate in yield at 1.57 per cent. Highest instability was observed in Uttar Pradesh for production, Odisha for area and West Bengal in yield. The state of Bihar was found to be having a moderate growth rate and moderate instability. The decomposition analysis (Table 12) further showed that the maximum area contribution in production is from Bihar and the maximum yield effect is from Chhattisgarh.

Table 11: Compound annual growth rates and instability indices of total vegetables for different states for the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).



Table 12: Decomposition of change in production of total vegetables in different states the period (1994-95 to 2021-22).


 
Association between growth rate and instability
 
A perusal of Table 13 shows the grouping of concerned vegetables of Eastern India by combining different growth rates and instability index in vegetable production in the concerned states. In the case of Brinjal, the national level area production was found to be showing high growth rate and low instability. The state of Uttar Pradesh was found to have a low growth rate and high instability indices in all the three dimensions of the area production and yield. Bihar and Chhattisgarh show moderate growth rates and a medium level of instability.

Table 13: Association between growth rate and instability of vegetable production*.


 
The situation in case of cabbage crop also provides similar results for Uttar Pradesh, while West Bengal exhibited a high growth rate coupled with medium instability. The national level average for cabbage exhibits a positive trait with high growth rate and low instability.
 
In case of Onion and Okra, the national average showed the same positive trait. The state of Chhattisgarh was found to be showing a high growth rate associated with low indices of instability. While analysing the case of total vegetables, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar showed a medium growth rate and moderate instability in the case of area and High growth rate and low instability in Bihar, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal. Low growth rate and low instability were observed in case of production in the state of Odisha and yield in Chhattisgarh. The state-level analysis of the association between growth rate and instability analysis showed a wide range of fluctuation among different crops. The instability was low when the growth rate was also low and instability was high when the growth rate was also high.
 
The compound growth rates and instability indices in vegetable production across states and crops, including brinjal, cabbage, okra and onion show that despite urbanization, vegetable production area grew in India and the area under study, with slow diversification in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Brinjal cultivation was found to have increased in West Bengal, surpassing the national average. However, production alone does not ensure access. Odisha and Chhattisgarh showed progress despite varying growth patterns. Positive growth rates were noted for onions and okra. Vegetable cultivation area were observed to have increased due to research and technology, but post-harvest systems showed some need in strengthening due to perishability (Anonymous 2017; Ahmad et al., 2018).
 
Losses due to pests, diseases and transportation were highlighted by (Gupta et al., 2021), with significant proportions lost in brinjal and okra, echoing Ahmad et al.’s findings. This underscores the urgency for technology and infrastructure improvement to minimize losses and promote vegetable cultivation. Contract farming could aid small farmers with inputs and guidance (Gupta et al., 2021). In essence, the study emphasizes on growth, instability trends and the need for enhanced technology and contract farming to encourage sustainable vegetable production and reduce losses (Chand and Raju, 2008; Murshid et al., 2013). Implementation of comprehensive post-harvest technologies and infrastructure to minimize losses and enhance quality in vegetable supply chains, while simultaneously promoting contract farming initiatives to provide small and marginal farmers with technical support, quality inputs and financial assistance, thereby fostering sustainable vegetable cultivation.
 

CONCLUSION

Vegetable production dynamics in major Eastern Indian states, exhibited diverse growth rates and instability levels. While progress has been made in production and area expansion, challenges like post-harvest losses, pests and transportation persist, leading to wastage. Brinjal’s mixed trends and promising growth in onions and okra underscore the potential for improvement. High growth rates can lead to instability due to external shocks, demanding technological innovation, infrastructure investment and support for contract farming. By enhancing post-harvest practices, fostering collaboration and advancing supply chains, Eastern India’s vegetable sector can become more resilient and efficient. Addressing growth and instability is pivotal. This study stresses the importance of targeted measures for sustainable and efficient vegetable production in the region, aligning with food security goals.
 

AUTHOR’S CONTRIBUTION

All authors contributed toward data analysis, drafting and revising the paper and agreed to be responsible for all aspects of this work.
 

DECLARATIONS

Author(s) declare that all works are original and this manuscript has not been published in any other journal.
 

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to report regarding the present study.
 

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