Agriculture, the sole provider of human food, is the world’s largest industry and major land-use with a global spread on ~40% available land (
Ramankutty et al., 2008). Agriculture plays a central role in the economic development of a country. The population of India is expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2050 with a current decadal growth rate of ~18%. The increasing population accelerated the pressure on natural resources throughout the world, but more specifically in India which has only 2.2% of world geographical area and supports 15% and 18% of livestock and human population, respectively.
The crop-based food products constitute ~78% of the average per capita energy needs worldwide, whereas other food sources such as milk, eggs and meat constitute another 20% (
Brevik, 2013). As per the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, Government of India, agriculture and its allied sectors contribute ~17% to the gross domestic product (GDP, for the years 2009 and 2017). Moreover, it provides about two-thirds of the employment in India (
Directorate of Economics and Statistics, 2016). Agriculture is the principal livelihood option for over 58% of rural households in India (
FAO, 2015).
To increase the agricultural production during the latter half of the twentieth century, green revolution was introduced in India (
Singh et al., 2017). It was originally based on three principles, such as people need to eat, land resources are limited and thereby increasing the yield through external inputs was a necessity. By the introduction of green revolution, the area under food grains has increased from 97.32 Mha (million hectares, in 1950-51) to 127.56 Mha (in 2017-18), while the production increased more than two times [from 50.82 MT (1950-51) to 284.83 MT (in 2017-18)] during the same interval due to yield improvement from 522 to 2233 kg/ha (
Directorate of Economics and Statistics, DAC and FW, 2018).
Green revolution led self-sufficiency in food production in India was taken as a role model for several developing countries for reducing hunger and increasing rural prosperity. Though agricultural management based on green revolution practices led to substantial increase in food production, the later consequences in terms of undesirable environmental degradation resulted in the critical scrutiny of these agricultural practices. Thus, an urgent need of ecological agriculture or sustainable agriculture has been suggested by the policy makers. The important of agriculture in the present scenario were depicted in Fig 1.
A two fold increase in the food production during the first 20 years of the launch of green revolution in India. This radical growth was achieved by seven fold and 375 fold increase in the consumption of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, respectively (
Singh et al., 2016). The external input-driven approach subdued the importance of internal regulation in the agro-ecosystem functioning, biological interactions, soil health and overall environmental sustainability (
Srivastava et al., 2016). Thus, it resulted in a significant decline in soil quality and its multi-functionality. Moreover, excessive inputs of agrochemicals resulted in the increase in environmental pollution caused by increased availability of free and reactive chemical species (like nitrate, phosphate, ammonia, chloride and heavy metal contents) in the soil system.
Overall, green revolution led to a socio-economic disparity among the farmers by favoring agro-based industries, large landholding farmers and negatively influencing small landholding farmers on the one hand and the environmental pollution, vulnerability of water resources, declining soil fertility and increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the other hand. Therefore, the first and foremost challenge for the Indian agriculture is to feed the growing population (
i.e. food security), followed by the judicious use of natural resources, by maintaining socio-economic balance (in the form of yield, market and livelihood) and incorporation of traditional knowledge and resource inputs (Fig 2). Future agriculture faces a number of challenges and is developing continuously by adapting several measures to cope up with diverse challenges and some of them are explained in Fig 2.
Food security
According to the recent estimate of United Nations, ~795 million people in the world were undernourished in 2014-2016 (
Arulbalachandran et al., 2017). Concept of food security which is based on food availability, accessibility, stability and its utilization came into the light. Food security was defined as the availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices. Or we can say that food security is the limited or uncertain availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods or limited or uncertain ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially acceptable ways (
Souza and Rao, 2016). Thus, achieving food security in a sustainable way is the world’s most imperative sociological, political, economic and scientific challenge of the twenty first century.
The population growth is relatively high in India with a current population of ~1.27 billion. India stands at the 74th position in the Food Security Index (
Economic Intelligence Unit 2017). India ranked at the 102nd in the Global Hunger Index 2019. However, the growth of food production was found higher than the population growth for the past three decades. As per an estimate, there will be a requirement of ~122 MT of rice, 115 MT of wheat, 47 MT of course grains, 27 MT of pulses and 143 MT of milk to feed the 1.3 billon people in India by the year 2030. Therefore, agriculture production needs to increase by almost two folds (from 206 MT at present to 380 MT) per annum to feed a population of 1.4 billion by 2030.
Food subsidy has been a major issue of food security and nutrition among the marginal farmers and people who live below poverty line. A study reports that about 66.5% of the outlay for food subsidy was actually spent for procuring food grain from farmers, maintaining stocks, paying carrying cost and for interest whereas only 31.2% money was spent on subsidizing food grains. Leakage and theft of food grains are other issues that impede food subsidy and as a result 13 paisa per rupee spent on food subsidy actually reaches the poor.
Land degradation
Agriculture productivity has risen dramatically; the cost in land degradation has been high. Large areas of the regions cropland, grass land, wood land and forest are now seriously degraded. Water and wind erosion are the major problems but salinity, sodicity (amount of sodium held in a soil) and alkalinity are also wide spread; water tables have been over exploited; soil fertility has been reduced and where mangrove forest has been cleared for aquaculture or urban expansion, coastal erosion has been a common result. Finally urban expansion has become a major form of land degradation, removing large areas of the best agricultural land from production. The effect of these forms of land degradation on cereal production has so far been masked by the increasing levels of agricultural inputs that are used. However, production of other crops such as pulses, cereals, roots and tubers, has now begun to decline.
It is no coincidence that these crops are grown on land with low production potential, where rates of land degradation are highest. There are six major causes of land degradation in the region: Deforestation, shortage of land due to increased populations, poor land use, insecure land tenure, inappropriate land management practices and poverty. Problem arise when populations started to increase and the pressure on land recourses become more severe. There is no longer enough land to allow periods; more and larger herds compete for forage and other traditional systems of land use are being placed under increasing strain. In India, some 144 million hectares of land are affected by either wind or water erosion. Farmers are the most susceptible group due to environmental degradation and continuously facing the challenges of hunger, poverty and further land degradation. The shift of farmer’s interests towards cultivation of cash crops (
e.g., rubber, coconut and coffee), possibly due to weather instability and increased rate of meat consumption, is also threatening the long-term sustainability of Indian agriculture (
Srivastava et al., 2016).
The destruction of the forests is mainly a result of clearance for agriculture. The search for fuel wood, as well as the growing frequency and severity of forest and bush fires, are also taking their toll. In India which supports 15% of the world’s cattle and 46% of the world buffalo, upland forests have been severely overgrazed. Deforestation has led to a severe shortage of fuel wood and building materials in many areas. Crop residues and animal manure, which are previously returned to the soil to add valuable nutrients, also burnt for fuel. The regions grass lands are also being destroyed-a matter of great economic importance since grazing is the largest land use in Asia. Deforestation is also altering hydrological conditions where vegetative cover is removed, the soil surface is exposed to the impact of raindrops which cause a sealing of the soil surface. Runoff increases, stream flows fluctuate more than before, flooding become more frequent and extensive.
Soil quality deterioration
Soil quality is the capacity of soil to interact with the ecosystem components for maintaining its physico-chemical environment, biological productivity and promoting the health of plants as well as animals. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is one of the important indicators of soil quality which controls many soil properties such as nutrient cycling, soil structure maintenance and pesticide and water retention. During green revolution decades, injudicious application of agrochemicals led to an alarming situation for the soil system (
Srivastava et al., 2016). Deterioration in soil organic matter under intensive farming systems is the main cause of decline in soil quality. Soil organic matter plays a key role in long-term conservation of soil by regulating microbial activities as it provides substrates for the decomposition by the microbes.
About 40% of the human population derived their food product using chemical fertilizers and chemicals. Injudicious application of chemical fertilizer is further enhancing the acidification of tropical soils which are already acidic by nature. The soil acidification further leads to the degradation of soil quality and deterioration of soil productivity in the long term. Injudicious application of chemical fertilizers, soil nutrient mining and deficiencies and poor cropping practices led to the degradation of more than 60% of the agricultural land in India. Soil quality deterioration is the most affected challenge for future agriculture to cultivate any kind of crop. Thus, sole application of chemical fertilizers in tropical agriculture hindered the yield of major food crops on the one hand and deteriorated soil biodiversity, fertility and nutrient-use efficiency on the other hand.
Water scarcity and salinization
Water is one of the most important substances on earth. All plants and animals must have water to survive their life. Water is a prerequisite for the agricultural production. For example, to produce one ton of grain, ~1000 tons of water is required. Precipitation and water availability is an uncertain phenomenon in India as well as in most part of the world (
Singh et al., 2017); therefore, crop water requirement is mainly fulfilled by supplemental irrigation such as canal and well irrigation. Agriculture consumes ~70% of global surface water for irrigation and crop production. A two-fold increase in the cropland area under irrigation is observed in the past 50 years. Such resource-intensive agriculture enhances the crop yield by two to three folds.
However, changing climate conditions impeded the continuous water availability in most countries of the world, which further impacted the sustenance of conventional irrigation practices (
Du et al., 2015). Moreover, crop production is more influenced by water scarcity as compared to the land degradation, especially in areas having inadequate rainfall. Thus, maintenance of the continuous water availability seems to be the major challenge for the present agriculture in the near future. Agricultural demand of stored water (ground and surface water) for irrigation in India is already very high and it is expected to rise by 56% by 2050 (
Kaur et al., 2013). Thus, water scarcity is expected to result in the food shortages, raising food prices and increase in the food imports by the resource poor countries. In addition, injudicious use of water for irrigation or increase in water availability due to climate change phenomenon also intensified the process of soil salinization due to increased water logging.
Government policy
After the First Five Year Plan, Indian agriculture got a step-motherly treatment. The farming community has been ignored, while there has been more emphasis on industrialization and urbanization. The growth rate of agriculture is only about 2.5 per cent, while the overall growth rate of the country is about 9 per cent. The farmers are not getting remunerative prices, most of them are under debts and in several parts of the country and farmers are committing suicides. This dismal picture is the result of continuous careless agricultural land use planning. Much emphasis has however, been laid on the rural and agricultural development in the eleventh Five Year Plan to remove the rural, urban inequality. Creation of 580 lakh jobs has also been proposed in this plan to overcome the problem of unemployment and to check the rural-urban migration. The real challenge for the government is in trying to boost food output at, home and increase investment in rural and agricultural infrastructure for the same, while at the same time not letting its guard down on fiscal prudence or inflation management. The severe drought of 2009 over greater part of the country has increased the miseries of the farmers, which is a set-back in the revival of Indian economy.
Lacking food storages and wastage of food
Grain production is steadily increasing due to advancement in production technology, but improper storage results in high losses in grains. According to the World Bank Report post-harvest losses in India amount 12 to 16 million metric tons of food grains each year, an amount that the World Bank stipulates could feed one-third of India’s poor. Wastage of food due to shortage in storage caused food damage. A study shows that about 1.06 lakh tones of wheat were damaged in Punjab and Haryana in the year 2012. This also caused bad quality of grain. On an average, 30-40% of all food produced is lost or wasted resulting in losses for farmers and unnecessary pressures on natural resources (
Godfray et al., 2010).
Total food storage capacity in India is 336.04 including hired space. Further due to lack of proper maintenance and skilled staff, 3.12 lakh tones of storage capacity was lying un-utilized. A large amount of rupees is spent for hiring storage. India grows large-scale fruits and vegetables and it ranks second in their production in the world. Seasonal availability of these crops is so high and often they are unused. Farmers struggle to obtain the input cost of their crops. The situation is grim in all over India. Potato in Punjab and Haryana, onion in Maharashtra, fruits in the Himalayan states along with other crops are largely unused during the season because of lacking cold storages. It also leads to low price thus farmers do not receive their actual returns.
Low status of agriculture in the society
In greater parts of India, agriculture is not considered as a dignified and honorable profession. This leads to disappointment and lack of enthusiasm among most of the farmers. The younger generation of farmers prefers a petty government job to agriculture. Moreover, rich farmers invest their agricultural profits in non-agricultural sectors which are more remunerative. In fact, there is a mass exodus of people from rural to urban areas in search of lucrative jobs. There is a constant flow of human and material resources from villages to the cities. This has led to fast growth of urban centers which are infested with slums, ghettoes and shanty colonies.
Inadequate agricultural research and education, training and extension
Though enough progress has been made in the field of agricultural research, there is no coordination between the farm and research laboratories in the different agro-climatic regions of the country. Hence, gains of new agricultural researches are not reaching the common cultivators, especially the marginal and small farmers. Very little attention is being paid for educating and training farmers for the adoption of new agricultural innovations and techniques to increase their agricultural production.
COVID-19: Effects on future agriculture
The biggest future challenge in the agriculture sector is the current pandemic situation in India,
i.e. COVID-19. Currently we are facing COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona virus 2. COVID-19 has affected all the processes which connect farm production to final consumer. Moreover, it seems to strike the food production system and food value chain. The negative impact of pandemic on supply and demand for food might lead food security at risk and future. Due to decline in international trade, disturbance in food supply chain and food production, food insecurity may arise at present and future. Food insecurity raised due to COVID-19 will highly affect the poorest and the most vulnerable segments of the population. At present, 820 million people are facing chronic hunger and 113 million are facing acute severe insecurity. Food safety and security is the major future challenge in India during this pandemic situation (
Poudel et al., 2020). The supply chain has been hit hardest by COVID-19, which causes food security of most vulnerable segment of population at risk and also, most of the migrant, informal, seasonal farm workers are losing their jobs which may affect the demand for food in future also.
